Well, I have multiple items to discuss with you today. The Shake Up Brad Parscale is out of the Trump campaign. Well, technically, he is demoted and there, but this is a political firing. Parscale didn’t even know until a few hours before it would happen.
One, it's odd that Trump is so upset that other people are making money by his paying them to win him win.
Two, it doesn't really matter whether Pascale or some other guy is named "campaign manager". The person running Trump's campaign is Trump himself, and he's not going to fire or demote himself when he effs it up.
Three, Trump may be in the right about easing environmental regulations on infrastructure. The problem is that he keeps doing it all wrong, bypassing Congress and using tweets and EOs. He's going to get tripped up by the Administrative Procedures Act, and it'll be another court case where he gets shot down for taking shortcuts and eschewing the real work of governance.
Erick, one thing you got wrong is that Trump didn't break the media. Rather, it is because of Trump any honest person can see the media is broken and is simply a megaphone for progressive Democrats. The media has tried to destroy every Republican President since Nixon, and moderates like Dole, McCain, and Romney were no exception. The reason Trump gets an exponential dose of media criticism is that he won’t back down from doing the right thing and a principled conservative like Ted Cruz would get the same treatment for exactly the same reason.
The assumption of the Republican establishment is that you can win elections by compromising your platform to please the suburbs, which means pro-life people are forever screwed. However, according to Forbes ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2016/11/22/donald-trump-clinton-rural-suburbs/#510abdf838b5 ), in 2016 Trump actually did better in the suburbs than Romney. And despite losing AL because of the anti-Roy-Moore movement, the Republicans gained a Senate seat in the 2018 election.
Three major reasons the Republicans lost House seats in 2018 are: 1. The New York suburbs didn’t like the SALT reduction because they live in a high tax state; 2. Court ordered redistricting in states like PA pushed Democratic voters into suburban districts; 3. Ballot harvesting in CA flipped seats days after the election. Biden is up +11 in a recent NBC/WSJ poll. But in 2016, the two NBC/WSJ polls in July time frame had Clinton with leads of +9 and +6. Moving closer to election day, the NBC/WSJ polls had Clinton leads of September: +6 , October: +11, +9, +11, November: +4.
In 2016, as election day drew near, the deciding issue shifted from “I don’t like Trump” to “I don’t want Hillary to be President.” If the deciding issue for the 2020 election shifts from “I don’t like Trump” to “Biden is mentally unfit to be President” or “Democratic policies are insane” then Trump will win again in another close race. If not, suburban voters will have the government they chose and my bet is that they will quickly come to regret it. But that outcome is far from certain, as “support for Trump’s policies” trumped “hatred for Trump” in 2016 and it may do so again in 2020.
No, I am just a concerned citizen who believes the direction Democrats wish to take our country will be an absolute disaster. The point I consistently try to make is that although there are legitimate reasons to dislike some of Trump's personal characteristics, his policies are a near polar opposite of the insane policies of the progressive left that is driving the Democratic platform.
Nicely done!
One, it's odd that Trump is so upset that other people are making money by his paying them to win him win.
Two, it doesn't really matter whether Pascale or some other guy is named "campaign manager". The person running Trump's campaign is Trump himself, and he's not going to fire or demote himself when he effs it up.
Three, Trump may be in the right about easing environmental regulations on infrastructure. The problem is that he keeps doing it all wrong, bypassing Congress and using tweets and EOs. He's going to get tripped up by the Administrative Procedures Act, and it'll be another court case where he gets shot down for taking shortcuts and eschewing the real work of governance.
Typo. ...to HELP him win.
Erick, one thing you got wrong is that Trump didn't break the media. Rather, it is because of Trump any honest person can see the media is broken and is simply a megaphone for progressive Democrats. The media has tried to destroy every Republican President since Nixon, and moderates like Dole, McCain, and Romney were no exception. The reason Trump gets an exponential dose of media criticism is that he won’t back down from doing the right thing and a principled conservative like Ted Cruz would get the same treatment for exactly the same reason.
The assumption of the Republican establishment is that you can win elections by compromising your platform to please the suburbs, which means pro-life people are forever screwed. However, according to Forbes ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2016/11/22/donald-trump-clinton-rural-suburbs/#510abdf838b5 ), in 2016 Trump actually did better in the suburbs than Romney. And despite losing AL because of the anti-Roy-Moore movement, the Republicans gained a Senate seat in the 2018 election.
Three major reasons the Republicans lost House seats in 2018 are: 1. The New York suburbs didn’t like the SALT reduction because they live in a high tax state; 2. Court ordered redistricting in states like PA pushed Democratic voters into suburban districts; 3. Ballot harvesting in CA flipped seats days after the election. Biden is up +11 in a recent NBC/WSJ poll. But in 2016, the two NBC/WSJ polls in July time frame had Clinton with leads of +9 and +6. Moving closer to election day, the NBC/WSJ polls had Clinton leads of September: +6 , October: +11, +9, +11, November: +4.
In 2016, as election day drew near, the deciding issue shifted from “I don’t like Trump” to “I don’t want Hillary to be President.” If the deciding issue for the 2020 election shifts from “I don’t like Trump” to “Biden is mentally unfit to be President” or “Democratic policies are insane” then Trump will win again in another close race. If not, suburban voters will have the government they chose and my bet is that they will quickly come to regret it. But that outcome is far from certain, as “support for Trump’s policies” trumped “hatred for Trump” in 2016 and it may do so again in 2020.
Do you do this for a living, dmk? Compelling analysis.
No, I am just a concerned citizen who believes the direction Democrats wish to take our country will be an absolute disaster. The point I consistently try to make is that although there are legitimate reasons to dislike some of Trump's personal characteristics, his policies are a near polar opposite of the insane policies of the progressive left that is driving the Democratic platform.
Excellent post!! Makes sense.