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Clip of the day:
Biden ❤️’s $5/Gallon Gas
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is driving the price of gas sky-high. A gallon of gas is 26 cents more expensive than a month ago and a full dollar more than a year ago. One petroleum analyst tells CBS that $5/gallon gas is coming soon. Manchin, Murkowski, and others want Russian oil sanctioned and domestic production increased. Despite this, Joe Biden has no plans to do so. Instead, he’s going soft on Russia by refusing to sanction Russian oil with the hopes of keeping gas prices down. This clip comes to mind:
Here’s more:
Some energy traders say Russian oil is not worth the trouble. - NYT
$150/barrel of oil is still possible. - CNBC
IEA pushes Europe to wean itself off of Russian gas. - Bloomberg
China evaluating its relationship with Russia. - WSJ
Russian stocks are collapsing with trading suspended. - CNBC
This is what the war looks like on Russian State Media. - WSJ
Democrats have a real problem
Democrats are not connecting with voters on the majority of issues that voters care about. While inflation, taxes, and immigration are the top priorities for voters, Democrats are doubling down on training Army officers on Gender Identity. Here’s the data.
Unmasking America
Ron DeSantis had a frank conversation with students at the University of South Florida yesterday.
The anger is understood. The Atlantic has a story about the difficulty that masks create for students with speech disorders. Many of these students are simply falling behind.
While measures such as masking and isolation mean temporary discomfort or inconvenience for most people, their consequences for still-developing young children are more mysterious, and possibly more significant and lasting.
Children with speech or language disorders offer perhaps the clearest example of these murky trade-offs. Pandemic restrictions vary by state, county, and school district, but I spoke with parents in California, New York, Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey, Iowa, and Maryland who said their children’s speech therapy has been disrupted—first by the loss of in-person therapy and then by masking requirements, in places that have them.
Despite this, some students and teachers view masks as a safety net and can’t give them up.
Ukraine Update
The Wall Street Journal has the best synopsis we could find:
Russia deepened its military offensive in southern Ukraine, penetrating the city of Kherson and pushing toward Zaporizhya, as the two sides resumed cease-fire talks after Moscow’s week-old incursion stalled in the north of the country.
Russian forces Thursday continued pounding residential districts in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, and Chernihiv in the north. Moscow also conducted airstrikes on the capital, Kyiv, and several Russian warships appeared near the southern port city of Odessa in what Ukrainian officials said could be the opening stages of an amphibious assault.
Seizing Odessa and other coastal cities that remain under Kyiv’s control would deprive Ukraine of its Black Sea coast and the ports through which most of the country’s exports are shipped.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a 90-minute phone call Thursday with French leader Emmanuel Macron, left little room for optimism about the talks and the course of the conflict.
The rest of the news
Domestic
Hispanic women are moving to the GOP in Texas. - Politico
Ron Klain predicts Biden’s poll number will rise. - The Hill
BREAKING: Ducey won’t run for Senate in Arizona. - Politico
Californians flee to Mexico to find affordable housing. - Fortune
Kevin Williamson has a great piece on why progressives can’t quit their masks. - NR
International
Saudi calls Israel a potential ally. - Bloomberg
China evaluating its relationship with Russia. - WSJ
NATO is flooding Ukraine with weapons. - NYT
Why Russia can’t win this war. - Substack
One college tried to ban a teacher because he’s Russian. - Newsweek
Putin has a secret $1.4 billion residence. - Barstool
If you can find a map of Ukraine showing the troop dispositions, and if you think like the career military man I am, you can clearly see that the Russians' short-term goal is to take Odessa, thus cutting Ukraine off from the world by sea. Then, they will drive north from Odessa, south from the vicinity of Kyiv, and cut off at least half of Ukraine's forces in the eastern part of the country. It can then shell Kyiv into submission as they did Grozny during the 2008 conflict with Chechnya, and the innocent lives ended be damned. They will end by annexing at least all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River. it'll be hard, but they can and will do it; Putin, after all, is of the same mindset which cost the Soviet Red Army 400,000 casualties in Berlin alone at the end of WWII.
As for China "evaluating" its relationship with Russia: It may be doing that, but with an eye on how to capture Russia as its client state, not the other way around. Compare the relative GDPs and the military forces of the two nations, and you'll see who's really in charge here.
Regarding Russian oil being "bought by the US". Oil is bought by a company, perhaps the operator of a refinery, to be sold as refined products. There will usually be one or more "middle men" (traders) between the ultimate buyer of the oil and the producer of the oil. It is common for a producer to hedge itself by selling a certain quantity of the oil at a fixed price over a particular period, forgoing potential profits in the spot market in exchange for price- and volume-certainty for its production. How much Russian oil is covered by such hedges? Who are the traders who would be making the profits on the spot market, rather than the Russian oil company that they would be buying from? Russian oligarchs? American oligarchs?