5 Comments

If you can find a map of Ukraine showing the troop dispositions, and if you think like the career military man I am, you can clearly see that the Russians' short-term goal is to take Odessa, thus cutting Ukraine off from the world by sea. Then, they will drive north from Odessa, south from the vicinity of Kyiv, and cut off at least half of Ukraine's forces in the eastern part of the country. It can then shell Kyiv into submission as they did Grozny during the 2008 conflict with Chechnya, and the innocent lives ended be damned. They will end by annexing at least all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River. it'll be hard, but they can and will do it; Putin, after all, is of the same mindset which cost the Soviet Red Army 400,000 casualties in Berlin alone at the end of WWII.

As for China "evaluating" its relationship with Russia: It may be doing that, but with an eye on how to capture Russia as its client state, not the other way around. Compare the relative GDPs and the military forces of the two nations, and you'll see who's really in charge here.

Expand full comment

Regarding Russian oil being "bought by the US". Oil is bought by a company, perhaps the operator of a refinery, to be sold as refined products. There will usually be one or more "middle men" (traders) between the ultimate buyer of the oil and the producer of the oil. It is common for a producer to hedge itself by selling a certain quantity of the oil at a fixed price over a particular period, forgoing potential profits in the spot market in exchange for price- and volume-certainty for its production. How much Russian oil is covered by such hedges? Who are the traders who would be making the profits on the spot market, rather than the Russian oil company that they would be buying from? Russian oligarchs? American oligarchs?

Expand full comment

Love the youtube clip referencing the petroleum analyst. The vast majority of these, so called experts, are freaking clueless how the wholesale distribution pricing of commodities works in the real world once you have traders and contract buyers involved.

I've been telling my friends that these analyst are worthless for decades but if they say prices are going up, in the very short term they are going up regardless of whether it takes 6 to 8 months for the finished product they just said is going up to reach the market. See gas prices

I've seen that DeSantis clip multiple times, that's awesome.

Expand full comment

The clip of DeSantis is priceless. I liked his tone and attitude as much as I did the content of what he said!

Expand full comment

First, not to be rude but Stacey looks like she dropped a few pounds. Secondly, if she feels her movement is like Zelensky’s and Ukraine; we best send the Russians in.

Expand full comment