SHOW NOTES: Jenna Ellis Pleads Guilty; Democrats' Anti-Semitism; The Speaker Fight; The Deficit

Good day to y’all. In lieu of writing a piece this morning, I figured I’d handle the show notes since someone is still on vacation and chime in on several topics.

Since I didn’t tell him this morning: Happy Birthday, Philip. May the Tampa Bay Lightning win, except against the Las Vegas Golden Knights.

Welcome! Jenna Ellis has pled guilty to one count of false statements in Georgia. More on that below.

Headline: White House says Iran 'actively facilitating' some attacks on US military bases.

Speakers Speaking: The House GOP is set to make their way through nine eight candidates for Speaker. Someone named Dan Meuser (R-PA) dropped out because no one knew who he was.

Must Read: The Ceasefire Monsters.

What these people and countries and entities are asking for, and have been from the beginning, is an unmolested Hamas-run genocide collective on Israel’s border. By now all these figures have had ample opportunity to see a fraction of the recordings of Hamas attacks on October 7 and read the testimony of witnesses and emergency workers and Hamas terrorists in custody. Israel began showing and playing the totality of them to journalists yesterday. Those who have seen the footage say it is the worst thing they have ever seen. And for those of us who have merely read the transcripts, they are the worst things we have ever read.

October 7 was a watershed day for humanity’s capacity for barbarism.

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Jenna Ellis Pleads Guilty

This is arguably bigger than Sidney Powell because Ellis was indisputably a lawyer for Donald Trump. No one filed any motions to suppress attorney-client conversations. She’s now agreeing to testify in court against Trump and other defendants.

The Reality: Ellis had to plead guilty. She crowdsourced $250,000.00, but this case will be extremely expensive and cost-prohibitive. With, originally, 19 defendants, it will take years with lots of motions, responses, etc. She is not wealthy. Pleading guilty now saves her a lot of money in the long term. Innocent people sometimes plead guilty because they cannot afford to fight. That’s just the reality of our legal system.

Notable: Like the others, Ellis did not plead guilty to RICO charges. In fact, she pled guilty to something drafted specifically for the plea deal. Also notable, Ellis now claims all the stolen election claims about Georgia were, in fact, false statements.

Problematic: The DA is trying to simplify the case and whittle down the defendants. Courts aren’t set up to handle that many defendants in a single trial. Fani Willis is doing just that; each defendant can be used against Donald Trump. While I think the case is politically motivated lawfare, Willis knows what she is doing. Trump is increasingly in jeopardy and is going to have to rely on a jury to avoid guilt. He will have his own lawyers testifying against him now.

Future: I still do not see how this case will make it to trial in the next year, let alone the next four years. There will be lots of pre-trial decisions that will get appealed. It will take a long time to pick a jury. This case will go after the federal cases, which take precedence. This is a long and expensive road ahead, which is why it made sense for Ellis to take a deal. But in so doing, she cannot claim innocence now.

The Democrats’ Anti-Semitism Problem

Karine Jean-Pierre is the dumbest person to ever stand behind the podium at the White House and serve as Press Secretary. Even Scott McClellan looks positively MENSA compared to this idiot. Just watch this:

She took a question about anti-Semitism and turned it into a question about Islamophobia. There are vastly more attacks on Jews in the United States and around the world than against Muslims.

Norm McDonald, years ago, tweeted a joke that this idiot has become.

But this is par for the course with Democrats. The party is infested with anti-Semites marching on college campuses across America. Barack Obama has decided to lecture Israel and recommended reading a host of dimwits who sympathize with Iran and Hamas, including Ben Rhodes, who argues in the piece Obama wants you to read that the military wing of Hamas is just not its best self.

Why is Israel the only country to be lectured after being attacked? Because the Democrats have to placate the anti-Semites in their ranks.

Will We Get a Speaker?

The conventional wisdom is that Tom Emmers (R-MN) can become Speaker by tomorrow. In fact, because he refused to denounce the 2020 election, rumors are Democrats may not show up for the vote to ensure Emmers gets a majority vote. As I go on air, it appears Emmers is going to win the conference vote.

The GOP has been meeting behind closed doors. The person with the fewest votes gets removed, and they keep voting till someone gets the majority. Then they take it to the floor. Trump opposes Emmers.

Does it matter? Maybe not if four Republicans object. The question will be what Democrats do. Again, there is some speculation that Democrats may just skip the vote if it is Emmers because they consider him the least bad option. But the Chairman of the Democratic Conference says no way.

At this point, the GOP just needs a Speaker. They’re starting to look like they can’t govern to a lot of Americans, and if the crises build around the world, that is going to cost them in 2024.

Also, if it is Emmers, really? All that for someone more moderate than principle-less McCarthy? Good grief.

It’s Time For Some of You to Go Away Now

The next debate is coming in a few weeks. A candidate should end his campaign if he does not make the stage. It really is that simple.

Right now, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Chris Christie have qualified for the stage. They have met both the polling metrics and the donor metrics. Trump won’t be there, but I bet a four way debate between Christie, DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy would be great.

Mike Pence has, as of now, not met the criteria for the debate in either donor or polling metrics.

Tim Scott has met the polling metric from a somewhat dubious poll, and he has not met the donor metrics.

Doug Burgum has met the donor metrics because he’s paying people to support him. He has not met the polling metrics.

Asa Hutchinson should have suspended his campaign well before now.

Y’all, it’s time to consolidate the field. If you can’t make the debate stage, you can’t win. It is that simple. I love Tim Scott, but I am starting to question why he is staying in. Even his Super PAC is suspending its ad buys. He says he is going all in in Iowa but doesn’t have the money to compete. Mike Pence — I love the man. But it is harder and harder to treat Pence and Scott as contenders at this point if they can’t get on that debate stage. Burgum never was a contender.

The race beyond Trump is a race between Haley and DeSantis — the only two candidates in double digits in national polling that isn’t shaped by skewed online pools of voters.

As much as I have friends in the field running, I have a hard time seeing them as viable. And frankly, given Trump’s polling, I’m not sure any of them are at this point. But I know for sure Burgum and Hutchinson are not viable.

Remember, polling in Iowa and New Hampshire matters. National polling does not matter. Christie and Haley are doing great in New Hampshire. DeSantis and Ramaswamy are doing great in Iowa. The others are starting to flatline.

Money, Money

We are headed towards a recession and financial crisis. Our deficit is growing despite the United States having the (technically) strongest economy in the world. Meanwhile, things are starting to look grim in China. Xi paid his first known visit to China’s central bank. This comes as China has a growing debt problem and a real estate problem. Its real estate market is crashing, and lots of local governments are saddled with off-the-books debts.

Xi may need a distraction, and we can’t afford any more distractions. That makes war a possibility. Cheery, huh? And then there are those two numbers.

The numbers: five and eight. As in 5% yield on the 10-year T-bill, and 8% interest on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. The two figures are closely related, and both are inviting ominous historical comparisons.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which goes up as prices fall, is flirting with 5% for the first time since 2007 (that’s ominous comparison No. 1). The yield briefly breached the 5% last week, and again on Monday, before falling back down to 4.83% by the end of the trading day.…

Yields on long-term bonds may sound like something you slept through in Econ 101, but the reality of their movement hits much closer to home. Higher yields lead to higher borrowing rates for your car loans, credit cards, and student debt (payments on which just returned from a three-year hiatus), and, of course, mortgages.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is barreling toward 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. (And that is ominous historical comparison numero dos.)

Of course, 8% isn’t special on its own, it’s just a round number that helps illustrate how far we’ve come from just three years ago, when rates fell below 3%. And the milestone underscores just how crappy it is to try to buy a home right now.

In Other News

• Intelligence shows Iranian-backed militias are ready to ramp up their attacks against US forces in the Middle East (CNN)

• White House says Iran 'actively facilitating' some attacks on US military bases (Reuters)

• Off-duty pilot charged with 83 counts of attempted murder for allegedly trying to shut off engines on Alaska Airlines flight (ABC)

• ‘The man broke my heart’: Biden’s Arab-American boosters begin to leave his side (Politico)

• Bob Menendez Got Boeing Cash After Egypt Aircraft Deal (Daily Beast)

• U.S. readies plans for mass evacuations if Gaza war escalates (Washington Post)

• Elite Universities Face Donor Revolt Over Mideast Conflict (WSJ)

• Poll: 70% of Americans support expanding school choice options (Center Square)

• Virginia Democrat goes to the barbershop and gets an earful (VA House GOP)

• Nikki Haley: If we decimate Iran's economy, sanction it, and stop the flow of money to the ayatollahs, they can’t fund Hamas’ war on Israel. No more money to countries that hate America. (via Twitter)

• Meta sued by 33 state AGs for addictive features targeting kids (CNBC)

• The error-prone Israeli government spokesman who wasn’t (Jewish Insider)

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