SHOW NOTES: The Zelensky Fall Out; Honda; and Paper Straws
Welcome! Philip is out fishing today (really), so your host gets to put this all together himself. That’s mostly why there was no morning piece; the big topic is Zelensky, and I’ll be getting to that at the top of the show.
New. There has been a terror attack in Germany. Another person used a vehicle to drive into a crowd as Carnival season is in full swing.
Big News. As President Trump announces tariffs are about to go into effect, Honda is announcing its new Honda Civic will be made in Indiana, not Mexico. The company said Mexico had been chosen because of the increasing costs to do business in Indiana. But tariffs change the equation. Notably, it means the car will cost more.
Speaking Of. How much will tariffs impact car purchases? Expect a $12,000.00 increase on already increasingly unaffordable cars.
Related. Trump, Chip Maker TSMC Expected to Announce $100 Billion Investment in U.S. Source: Wall Street Journal
Common Sense Prevails. The US Department of the Treasury is announcing it will not enforce the Corporate Transparency Act against US Citizens and you will not have to file a beneficial ownership information report. Hallelujah.
Notable Stat. We are outpacing Saudi Arabia in daily oil production now.
I’ll leave everything open today for even unpaid subscribers since I did not do a morning post and want everyone around for my thoughts on Ukraine.
The Zelensky Matter
Please consider joining me live on the radio today at 12:06 p.m. ET as I discuss my thoughts on this. But, in a nutshell:
It is difficult to have a rational conversation about Ukraine at this point. Everything is tribalism and emotion. Let me see if I can inject some sanity into the mix here.
First, if you watch the entire meeting between Zelensky, Trump, and Vance, Donald Trump offered Zelensky security protection through a mineral rights deal. Three times now, Zelensky has rejected the deal. Three times now, the White House has made it clear that if Zelensky wants American protections, it needs to be in the form of this mineral rights deal. The United States would have a vested interest in protecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity if the United States had some business deals inside Ukraine.
This could have been a ministerial agreement, but Zelensky seemed to think he could litigate the matter if he went to Washington. One can blame J.D. Vance for the last question antagonism—that awkward five minutes that will live forever on the internet—but Zelensky spent 40 minutes not seeming to realize Trump was, in fact, giving Zelensky the American involvement he wanted.
From an outside perspective, Zelensky seems utterly unaware that Democrats and Republicans are not interchangeable. For the past four years, Zelensky has relied on liberal Western elites to advise him. He seems incapable of pivoting. Based on his performance, I suspect that he relied on the advice of people in the Biden/Obama orbit before meeting with Trump, and they advised him badly.
Zelensky needs to reset the relation immediately or step aside for someone who can.
As for Europe, despite their claims to defend Ukraine, the European nations have spent more money on Russian natural gas over the past three years than they have invested in helping Ukraine. One cannot help Ukraine beat Russia when one is throwing more money at the Russians than Ukraine.
Ukraine must give up land for peace. That is the reality. Complaining about Trump and Vance does not bring peace. Democrats are emotionally invested in the talking point that Trump is doing Russia’s dirty work.
But Trump just offered Ukraine a security guarantee in exchange for a mineral rights deal. Neither Russia nor China wants that to happen, and Zelensky, not Trump, scuttled it.
Even after Zelensky refused a White House request to wear a suit, Trump praised his outfit, saying, “I think he’s dressed beautifully.” Trump extolled the minerals deal they had reached and said, “We look forward to getting in and digging, digging, digging.” He publicly pledged to continue military aid to Ukraine and even held out the possibility that he “could conceivably” commit U.S. troops alongside British and French troops to provide security after a peace deal was reached.
This should have been music to Zelensky’s ears. He should have taken the win. Instead, about 24 minutes in — long before his terse exchange with Vice President JD Vance — Zelensky started criticizing Trump in front of the assembled reporters.
Thiessen supports Ukraine. When you’ve lost Thiessen, you’ve lost the argument.
The Other Fight
The government will shut down sometime around March 14th. Democrats have no desire to help the GOP, so the GOP is going to have to rally itself for votes. The House will be the problem. House conservatives are still deeply concerned about the lack of cuts, and some House members are concerned about Ukraine. This is going to be no easy deal.
This comes in addition to the tax cut and reconciliation fight.
Right now, it appears the GOP will try to pass a continuing resolution that will fund the government until September 30, 2025, the end of the fiscal year.
High Prices Could Come for the GOP
The public still feels high prices and tariffs will drive prices up higher.
Republicans, who still pin the blame on Trump’s predecessor, say voters have been willing to give Trump some leeway to enact his agenda—but they warn that goodwill might not last.
“I’m nervous about it,” said Stephen Moore, a veteran outside adviser to Trump on economic issues. “The Trump administration needs to keep its eye on what’s happening with prices. It should be a top priority. The trend is a little bit troubling.”
Further compounding the political risks: Trump’s far-reaching plans to impose tariffs on foreign imports could drive up prices further, according to economists.
Most economic data released so far doesn’t capture Trump’s time in office. But U.S. consumer confidence saw the biggest monthly decline in four years in February, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. Core consumer price inflation was 3.3% in January, higher than economists had expected, and a survey by the University of Michigan also showed higher expected inflation in the coming year. As bird flu roils the poultry industry, record egg prices have added to Trump’s economic troubles.
Who Cares?
The Academy Awards happened last night. I doubt you watched? I grew up watching them and gave up years ago when the Oscars decided to care more about virtue signaling Hollywood values over popular appeal.
I have never heard of the movie that won Best Picture. I have heard of the favorite to win until the transdude who plays the lead role blew it all up. That movie offended virtually everyone, but was on track to win until it turned out the mentally ill lead also said a lot of unfortunate things.
My daughter watched and said the people on stage said a lot about begging audiences to return to the theaters. She wondered why anyone would bother when Hollywood thought these were the movies worth seeing.
The Erickson Rule (Again)
Remember the Erickson Rule of Media Coverage. When Democrats are in charge, the press focuses on policy beneficiaries. When Republicans are in charge, the press focuses on policy victims. Here is a glorious example.
The paper straw, Guy Spinelli was sure, would be the way of the future.
After 50 years toiling in the country’s paper mills, the 75-year-old plunked his life savings into creating a “24 hours strong” straw that he manufactures in Woodstock, Illinois, and sells to more than 1,000restaurants, bars, coffee shops and casinos.
Other Headlines
Hegseth Orders Pentagon to Stop Offensive Cyberoperations Against Russia (NY Times)
Why winter was colder than average in the U.S., and what spring will bring (WaPo)
Macron urges Europe to boost defense spending to over 3 percent of GDP (Politico)
Wildfires rage across the Carolinas; South Carolina governor issues state of emergency (USA Today)
Are Home Values About to Fall? It Depends on the Location (WSJ)
‘Democrats have been playing dead for too many years’ (Politico)
The Democrats’ young man problem is real (Vox)
The housing market has shifted in favor of buyers — depending on where you live (CNN)
Bitcoin jumps nearly $14,000 in three days on Trump’s crypto reserve announcement (CNBC)
How Left-Wing Bureaucrats Hijacked the Bidding Process for Georgia's Multibillion-Dollar Medicaid Contract (Free Beacon)
Immigrant removals down as fewer try to cross border (Axios)
Trump vows to ‘tell it like it is’ in his joint address to Congress (Washington Times)
You nailed it regarding Ukraine, Erick. The rare earth minerals deal IS the U.S. security guarantee. Or at least part of one with the EU and UK. I struggle with how anyone with half a brain doesn’t see that. The TDS group is too far gone to see anything. As for the economy, we need to have a bit of patience. 6 weeks to turn around the mess the last administration created is not enough time. Being the media-savvy hawk that he is, I’m sure Trump and the people around him understand that he owns it.
Trump and Vance are right.... Zelenskyy holds no cards. He is losing this thing, and badly. The only thing he will have in the future is a Ukraine in ruins with a bunch of dead Ukrainians.
I used to have some respect for Zelenskyy.. but now it's clear he's just a greedy little tin-plated despot getting fabulously wealthy off the billions that the US is sending him. He's just fine with trying to win a PR war while keeping the shooting war to a stalemate... two wars that he is losing.