SHOW NOTES: We Have Some Trends

Welcome! I’d have sent out a morning email today, but was working phones and getting trendlines on the early vote. I’ll make today’s Show Notes available to everyone as a result.

🚨Breaking. The Washington Post will not be endorsing Kamala Harris. For the first time in forty years, the paper will not endorse anyone.

Trends. As I’ve said repeatedly, you can only make so much out of early voting trends because someone who votes on Election Day may have forgotten to vote early. An early vote counts the same as an Election Day vote. Scientifically, so to speak, they are the same and so one must be careful with trends. But some historical anomalies are happening right now.

• Nevada. The GOP is outpacing Democrats in early voting, which is unprecedented. Steve Daines, the Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is headed to Nevada to campaign with Capt. Sam Brown. Most have written off Brown’s chances, but any momentum towards the GOP would help Brown, and the Democrats are starting to sweat.

• Georgia. Out of 2.1 million votes cast so far, over 300,000 are from people who did not vote in 2020. In 2020 and 2022, the black vote at this point in early voting exceeded 31%. In fact, in 2022, the black vote exceeded 34%. Right now, the black vote is only 26%, and black men are simply not voting.

• North Carolina. Remarkably and despite the hurricane, the Republican early vote is matching the Democrat early vote, which has not happened in North Carolina since George Bush’s victory there in 2004.

• Pennsylvania. Democrats are far outpacing Republicans in the early vote, but that’s normal. What is not normal is for the GOP to be over 30% of the early vote. Early Republican voters outpaced both 2016 and 2020 in participation.

The Thing Keeping the GOP Up At Night. Here’s what the Democrats are telling themselves and anyone else who will listen — pollsters have overcorrected to avoid undercounting Trump’s vote. As a result, they’ve swung the needle too far in the other direction and are now overstating Trump’s support. Therefore, Harris is winning.

But Don’t Forget Trends. The bottom line is that polling is never right. But the polling averages give sense to the numbers, and the momentum is the more telling thing. Even if the polling is oversampling Trump’s voters, the voter model is static at this point. That means we can see momentum shifts even in bad polls. And virtually every poll is now signaling a momentum shift to Trump. Look, a poll may be oversampling Trump voters by 5%. But when the non-Trump voters in the poll are also shifting to Trump, that tells us where the energy is.

And Believe Your Eyes. Also look at the campaign trail. Trump is having fun. Harris is miserable. Trump is telling jokes. Harris is warning of Armageddon. Who looks like they know they are winning? Who looks like they know they are losing?

Bottom Line. It is a close election. Momentum appears to be with the GOP. But you still have to vote. Don’t vote, don’t expect the outcome you want. Also, because it is so close, Trump could say something stupid to evaporate his momentum. Harris could, God forbid, actually say something smart, too.

Over To You, Harry Enten. The New York Times now has a tied race, after having Kamala Harris up by three points.

Must See TV. Thanks for saying this, Senator.

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Non-Citizen Voter Registrations

In Virginia, some people affirmatively identify that they are not citizens of the United States and still register to vote. Virginia purged those non-citizens from the voting rolls. They cannot vote if they show up to vote so there is no reason for them to be on the rolls.

But the Biden-Harris Administration ordered Virginia to put them back on the ballots and a federal judge has agreed. The Virginia Attorney General is appealing. There is no reason for these non-citizens to be on the rolls. They literally cannot vote if they show up to vote. But some will presume shenanigans, which is exactly why, for the integrity of the process, Biden-Harris should not have pushed this issue.

They did to appeal to identity politics. It could actually hurt them.

A Strange Pentagon Promotion

We’re so focused on the election, but we should not ignore that the Biden-Harris Administration just made a questionable promotion — someone suspected of ties with Iran is rising at the Pentagon.

Ariane Tabatabai is now a deputy assistant secretary of defense within Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's office, where she will lead its force education and training division. Tabatabai, according to Politico, was offered the promotion last month. She previously served as chief of staff for the assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict.

Tabatabai became a public commodity after a 2023 Semafor report outed her as a member of an Iranian government propaganda group known as the Iran Experts Initiative. The affiliation saw Tabatabai report back to Iran’s foreign ministry and communicate with senior officials in the hardline regime.

Tabatabai's promotion comes at a curious time for the Biden-Harris administration. Over the weekend, classified U.S. intelligence on Israel's military preparations for a strike on Iran leaked in a "deadly serious breach," which the administration is investigating. While the leaker has not been publicly identified, the situation has raised concerns about a host of Biden-Harris administration officials, including Tabatabai, who want to increase diplomacy with Iran at the cost of the historically close U.S. alliance with Israel.

Democrats Think They Are Losing

We have arrived at this point. From Axios:

What we're hearing: In a troubling sign for the campaign, top Democrats are already starting to point fingers at who'd be more responsible for a Harris loss — President Biden for dragging his feet, or Harris herself. "Going down?" a top Democratic official texted.

Democrats fear she has made too many different cases against Trump, and still hasn't fully revealed herself to voters, who crave to know more.

"She is who she is," one longtime Democratic strategist said. "Let's hope it's enough."

Democrats say Harris faces a maddening double standard, as Trump threatens to jail adversaries and strip broadcast licenses. "He gets to be lawless. She has to be flawless," CNN senior political commentator Van Jones said this week.

Here’s the reality — when Democrats start screaming about a double standard in the press hurting them, they well and truly are losing. That’s just the reality.

In Other News

• Ilhan Omar’s Daughter Gets Reparations Payments From White Friends (Free Beacon)

• Democrats Poised to Gain Ground in New York, but Lawler Moves to Lean Republican (Cook Political)

• How DEI Corrupted the NIH (City Journal)

• Elon Musk’s Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin (WSJ)

• Harris, Beyoncé team up for a Texas rally on abortion rights and hope battleground states hear them (AP)

• 30M early votes cast ahead of Election Day (The Hill)

• Progressives warn Harris must change her closing message as the election looms (AP)

• Satellite Shows Major Expansion of Russian Bioweapons Site (WaPo)

• Johnson and McConnell Briefed on Ongoing Threats to Trump. Say Harris Needs to Cool the Rhetoric (Twitter)