If you follow along with the conversations happening right now in the media, group therapy is happening. “Republicans are just a normal polling error away from a landslide - or wiping out,” read the FiveThirtyEight headline. The site has moved from the Democrats might keep the House to the Republicans are the odds on favorite of taking the Senate.
Polling was off in 2020 due to the voting process changes. Mail-in balloting makes predicting election outcomes more difficult than ever. Biden might have signaled intentionally or unintentionally that this election will have irregularities. Conclusion: who knows? But if I had to predict, the outcome will not be as bad for the Dems as some folks think.
On Wednesday I was lucky enough to be one of seven to sit on a "voter panel" for this Saturday's "Lawrence Jones Cross Country" show. (As an aside, Lawrence couldn't be nicer.)
One couple originally from FL, identified as "a registered Democrat" and a "registered Independent." Besides me, two others identified as Conservative/Republican.
A bit surprisingly, of the seven, only one was adamant that she would vote for Abrams/Warnock. Most (including me) stated they either had or would vote Kemp/Walker. One was leaning toward Kemp/Walker.
One African American lady was incredibly knowledgeable, since she has an outreach/info program towards African Americans. She says the African American males she has spoken to are turning significantly towards Kemp strictly on the economy.
The lone liberal asked her about abortion, and the response was that it wasn't an issue for African American males. She asked about African American women, and the reply was the same. It just wasn't an issue.
When asked about the job Biden was doing, only the Abrams/Warnock voter thought Biden was doing a good job. The other six ranged from poor to horrible to "he should resign."
I'm beginning to think maybe Erick and his favorite pollster might be right about Walker getting through without a runoff.
Erick, thanks so much for your show, your "Show Notes" and all the information you put out every week.
This may be off, but I am very concerned about the apparently growing “to heck with Ukraine” sentiment in perhaps a plurality of the Republican Party. Have they any idea what a Putin success there would mean for the next decade? I hope it’s a lot of, “if Biden’s for it, it must be bad.”
Is there anything on washington senate race? the last 2 polls have smiley down 1 and 2, could she catch up? It would be ironic if a red tsunami happened in a state that actually could have a tsunami.
A red wave will mean nothing if the so called republicans do nothing. Remember the four years under Trump? What were they waiting for? A Republican to be elected Pope? (Sarcasm)
Yeah, this time it has to be different. Forget the media liking you, they never will as a new conservative senator or representative. The crazies in the media, academia, and politics must be aggressively engaged, such as Tom Cotten and Paul Rand do continuously. Don't need to be mean, but emphatic...with a smile...like Reagan.
I am stunned that ANYONE would vote for John Fetterman. What is wrong with Pennsylvanians? I would never hire someone in his condition to do anything for me, much less represent me and my family in DC.
I'm right there with you, yet objectively I believe John Fetterman is cognitively more "there" than Biden. I'm not a doctor and I didn't spend the night in a Holiday Inn Express, but my grandfather had a stroke and he never lost his mental acumen. He DID, however, lose his ability to communicate succinctly and that seems to be where the Fetterman camp is ensconced. He may know exactly what he's voting for, he just may not be able to message it to the electorate succinctly. Biden can't seem to differentiate between a bicycle and pudding.
Love your comment!!! You are right. Fetterman knows exactly what he will do if elected, even if he can't clearly express it. That's the problem!! He is so very radical and I just can't believe ANYONE would vote for him!! I would love for someone who is clear thinking explain to me why they would vote for him.
Okay, maybe it’s just me, I’m kind of cynical and contrary…but is it possible that some of the stories of the coming “red wave” is a media ploy specifically designed to get Democrats fired up to vote?
I mean, if I were a Democrat, and hearing constantly that our democracy is at stake, and the Republicans are in the lead and every vote is vital to ensure they don’t take over…I’d be more inclined, even if I didn’t normally vote in the midterms, even if I were one of the voters who believe “it’s all rigged anyway”, to make sure I voted.
Someone’s been running a commercial telling people that their family and friends will be able to look up if they’ve voted or not…”they can’t see how you voted, but they can see IF you voted”, which is a little concerning…because to many people, that’s just a short step away from “We know how you’re registered to vote, and we can make that public if we choose”…and under this administration, that’s a thinly veiled threat.
I wish there weren’t any polls, I wish the media would stop trying to tell us who is going to win, that they’d stop with all the blatant lies and ridiculous projections. Remembering that Hilary was a “sure bet” to beat Trump…I wonder how many Democrats in battleground states just didn’t bother to cast a ballot because she was so sure to win.
My wife, who typically votes Democrat but admits she is voting for at least two Republicans this year, received one of those mailings advising her of when she had voted (or not) in the past 10 years. The letter shows which elections she voted in and also has two other names and addresses of what I presume to be neighbors (the street address is redacted but the street name is not).
Then, there is sort of a veiled below this stating, “We will be reviewing these records after the election to determine whether or not you joined your neighbors in voting”
Yeah, I keep seeing these TV ads that tell you that your family and friends will know if you voted or not. I can't figure out what the point of that is. It seems very intimidating and Big Brother-ish.
HOLY SMOKES, REALLY??? I honestly wondered if maybe @Merleliz had received some questionable information. Wow, that is REALLY messed up! Fighting words, in fact. Like, how DARE you??
And BTW @Merleliz, I agree 100% about the polls and pollsters! "How 'bout a big ol' cup of shut the %$#@ UP!!"
Yes. It was from the “Voter Participation Center.” I don’t think I can post a pic here but I asked her what it was before she had opened it (I had already seen it since it was basically a folded piece of paper, not in an envelope). I went to look for it later and she had thrown it in the trash without mention of what it was to me. :-)
I don't remember the name of the group that is advertising that on TV...but I'll try to get it the next time I see it. "Voter Participation Group" sounds like it, but I'm just not sure. We're in the woods, don't have cable, and this is on an "antenna TV" channel.
They were part of the group "Vote America" suing Raffensberger to be allowed to send unsolicited absentee ballot requests to "underrepresented minorities", weren't they?
I think The MSM are making such outrageous statements about "losing democracy" that even liberals are starting to roll their eyes. The doom and gloom that is being preached is over the top embarrassing. Chris Hayes takes the "Best Propaganda" Oscar for his "vote the bums out" monologue where he pleads that we must vote democrat now or we will not be able to vote democrats out in the future. They really think that Americans are dumb enough to buy this crap. They have their allied celebrities (Rob Riener, Stephen Colbert, etc.) and paid twitter operatives (Ron Filipkowski, Dean Obeidallah) as well as "respectable" legal academics (Larry Tribe) trying to add credibility. They are cutting off their nose despite their face. And I have my popcorn ready for election night. I am going to tape MSNBC to see if the meltdowns are as good as 2016.
Living in GA I remember some years back when John Lewis was part of a campaign ad where he said that black people's "very lives" depend on them voting Democrat. That's when I lost respect for him.
"I think The MSM are making such outrageous statements about "losing democracy" that even liberals are starting to roll their eyes." This is the only part of your post that I would argue. IMO, they really believe it, just like they really believe we have ten years left on this planet if we don't counter climate change. The inherent ignorance of "losing democracy" is illustrated in those two words because we don't have a democracy, we have a democratic republic (which I'm quite sure most on the left couldn't define if their lives depended upon it, just like they couldn't define fascism). They've allowed a teenaged Greta Thunberg to be their mouthpiece on climate change, a teenaged David Hogg (now 22) to be their mouthpiece for the anti-gun movement, yet NOBODY on the left questions whether their lack of life experiences disqualifies them from making such statements because most on the left really believe this crap.
I find myself kind of holding my breath as the election approaches. Signs are certainly good that there will be a red wave, but we will have to wait and see. I pray that the red wave will happen and newly elected right-leaning candidates will get busy cleaning up the mess that is the Biden administration.
Polling was off in 2020 due to the voting process changes. Mail-in balloting makes predicting election outcomes more difficult than ever. Biden might have signaled intentionally or unintentionally that this election will have irregularities. Conclusion: who knows? But if I had to predict, the outcome will not be as bad for the Dems as some folks think.
On Wednesday I was lucky enough to be one of seven to sit on a "voter panel" for this Saturday's "Lawrence Jones Cross Country" show. (As an aside, Lawrence couldn't be nicer.)
One couple originally from FL, identified as "a registered Democrat" and a "registered Independent." Besides me, two others identified as Conservative/Republican.
A bit surprisingly, of the seven, only one was adamant that she would vote for Abrams/Warnock. Most (including me) stated they either had or would vote Kemp/Walker. One was leaning toward Kemp/Walker.
One African American lady was incredibly knowledgeable, since she has an outreach/info program towards African Americans. She says the African American males she has spoken to are turning significantly towards Kemp strictly on the economy.
The lone liberal asked her about abortion, and the response was that it wasn't an issue for African American males. She asked about African American women, and the reply was the same. It just wasn't an issue.
When asked about the job Biden was doing, only the Abrams/Warnock voter thought Biden was doing a good job. The other six ranged from poor to horrible to "he should resign."
I'm beginning to think maybe Erick and his favorite pollster might be right about Walker getting through without a runoff.
Erick, thanks so much for your show, your "Show Notes" and all the information you put out every week.
This may be off, but I am very concerned about the apparently growing “to heck with Ukraine” sentiment in perhaps a plurality of the Republican Party. Have they any idea what a Putin success there would mean for the next decade? I hope it’s a lot of, “if Biden’s for it, it must be bad.”
Is there anything on washington senate race? the last 2 polls have smiley down 1 and 2, could she catch up? It would be ironic if a red tsunami happened in a state that actually could have a tsunami.
A red wave will mean nothing if the so called republicans do nothing. Remember the four years under Trump? What were they waiting for? A Republican to be elected Pope? (Sarcasm)
Yeah, this time it has to be different. Forget the media liking you, they never will as a new conservative senator or representative. The crazies in the media, academia, and politics must be aggressively engaged, such as Tom Cotten and Paul Rand do continuously. Don't need to be mean, but emphatic...with a smile...like Reagan.
HAHAHAHAHA!!! LMAO OVER HERE!!
I am stunned that ANYONE would vote for John Fetterman. What is wrong with Pennsylvanians? I would never hire someone in his condition to do anything for me, much less represent me and my family in DC.
I'm right there with you, yet objectively I believe John Fetterman is cognitively more "there" than Biden. I'm not a doctor and I didn't spend the night in a Holiday Inn Express, but my grandfather had a stroke and he never lost his mental acumen. He DID, however, lose his ability to communicate succinctly and that seems to be where the Fetterman camp is ensconced. He may know exactly what he's voting for, he just may not be able to message it to the electorate succinctly. Biden can't seem to differentiate between a bicycle and pudding.
Love your comment!!! You are right. Fetterman knows exactly what he will do if elected, even if he can't clearly express it. That's the problem!! He is so very radical and I just can't believe ANYONE would vote for him!! I would love for someone who is clear thinking explain to me why they would vote for him.
Yep, for sure! And to your point, his condition almost might work in his favor because he always has an "out" when it comes time to explain himself.
Okay, maybe it’s just me, I’m kind of cynical and contrary…but is it possible that some of the stories of the coming “red wave” is a media ploy specifically designed to get Democrats fired up to vote?
I mean, if I were a Democrat, and hearing constantly that our democracy is at stake, and the Republicans are in the lead and every vote is vital to ensure they don’t take over…I’d be more inclined, even if I didn’t normally vote in the midterms, even if I were one of the voters who believe “it’s all rigged anyway”, to make sure I voted.
Someone’s been running a commercial telling people that their family and friends will be able to look up if they’ve voted or not…”they can’t see how you voted, but they can see IF you voted”, which is a little concerning…because to many people, that’s just a short step away from “We know how you’re registered to vote, and we can make that public if we choose”…and under this administration, that’s a thinly veiled threat.
I wish there weren’t any polls, I wish the media would stop trying to tell us who is going to win, that they’d stop with all the blatant lies and ridiculous projections. Remembering that Hilary was a “sure bet” to beat Trump…I wonder how many Democrats in battleground states just didn’t bother to cast a ballot because she was so sure to win.
My wife, who typically votes Democrat but admits she is voting for at least two Republicans this year, received one of those mailings advising her of when she had voted (or not) in the past 10 years. The letter shows which elections she voted in and also has two other names and addresses of what I presume to be neighbors (the street address is redacted but the street name is not).
Then, there is sort of a veiled below this stating, “We will be reviewing these records after the election to determine whether or not you joined your neighbors in voting”
Scary
Yeah, I keep seeing these TV ads that tell you that your family and friends will know if you voted or not. I can't figure out what the point of that is. It seems very intimidating and Big Brother-ish.
HOLY SMOKES, REALLY??? I honestly wondered if maybe @Merleliz had received some questionable information. Wow, that is REALLY messed up! Fighting words, in fact. Like, how DARE you??
And BTW @Merleliz, I agree 100% about the polls and pollsters! "How 'bout a big ol' cup of shut the %$#@ UP!!"
Yes. It was from the “Voter Participation Center.” I don’t think I can post a pic here but I asked her what it was before she had opened it (I had already seen it since it was basically a folded piece of paper, not in an envelope). I went to look for it later and she had thrown it in the trash without mention of what it was to me. :-)
Okay, it was paid for by “Future Forward USA Action”
I don't remember the name of the group that is advertising that on TV...but I'll try to get it the next time I see it. "Voter Participation Group" sounds like it, but I'm just not sure. We're in the woods, don't have cable, and this is on an "antenna TV" channel.
They were part of the group "Vote America" suing Raffensberger to be allowed to send unsolicited absentee ballot requests to "underrepresented minorities", weren't they?
I think The MSM are making such outrageous statements about "losing democracy" that even liberals are starting to roll their eyes. The doom and gloom that is being preached is over the top embarrassing. Chris Hayes takes the "Best Propaganda" Oscar for his "vote the bums out" monologue where he pleads that we must vote democrat now or we will not be able to vote democrats out in the future. They really think that Americans are dumb enough to buy this crap. They have their allied celebrities (Rob Riener, Stephen Colbert, etc.) and paid twitter operatives (Ron Filipkowski, Dean Obeidallah) as well as "respectable" legal academics (Larry Tribe) trying to add credibility. They are cutting off their nose despite their face. And I have my popcorn ready for election night. I am going to tape MSNBC to see if the meltdowns are as good as 2016.
Living in GA I remember some years back when John Lewis was part of a campaign ad where he said that black people's "very lives" depend on them voting Democrat. That's when I lost respect for him.
"I think The MSM are making such outrageous statements about "losing democracy" that even liberals are starting to roll their eyes." This is the only part of your post that I would argue. IMO, they really believe it, just like they really believe we have ten years left on this planet if we don't counter climate change. The inherent ignorance of "losing democracy" is illustrated in those two words because we don't have a democracy, we have a democratic republic (which I'm quite sure most on the left couldn't define if their lives depended upon it, just like they couldn't define fascism). They've allowed a teenaged Greta Thunberg to be their mouthpiece on climate change, a teenaged David Hogg (now 22) to be their mouthpiece for the anti-gun movement, yet NOBODY on the left questions whether their lack of life experiences disqualifies them from making such statements because most on the left really believe this crap.
One of your very best. Keep the faith.
Perhaps someone should tell the Democrats “if you like your [Representative/Senator/Governor], you can keep your [Representative/Senator/Governor].”
That should make some of them feel better.
Well stated for Democrats Or if you like your ungodly nut case you can keep your nut case who is guided by Satan.
To be fair, that could also apply to some Republicans.
I find myself kind of holding my breath as the election approaches. Signs are certainly good that there will be a red wave, but we will have to wait and see. I pray that the red wave will happen and newly elected right-leaning candidates will get busy cleaning up the mess that is the Biden administration.
But can they even do that given the age of executive orders?