The Slow Motion Unraveling of the Democrats' Path to Victory

Last night’s press conference might have been the worst possible outcome for Democrats. The President, despite his “Vice President Trump” flub, handled himself more competently than the Stephanopoulos interview. But, despite public support from most Democrats, they all privately want Biden to step aside.

These Democrats have two problems.

First, they need a back up plan that does not involve an open convention in Chicago, which would be chaos. Tacitly, this is an admission against interest that, like their public support for Biden, Democrats’ public praise of Kamala Harris is for show and privately they think she is a disaster.

Second, how do they convince Joe Biden to do what they think is the right thing. Despite Biden claiming he’d let delegates vote at the convention, no one really wants that, including Biden.

Notably, a few dogs have not barked.

The first dog not to bark is Biden’s outside support team. There has not been loud support for Biden from core Democrat constituency groups. No one is rushing in to defend Joe Biden.

The second dog not to bark is the one calling for a campaign shakeup. Normally, in situations like this, there would be calls not to get rid of the candidate, but to get rid of those around him. That this is not happening is an admission against interest that all the Democrats know the problem is Biden, not his team.

The third dog not to bark is Nancy Pelosi, who has neither defended Biden nor parted ways with him. She clearly seems to be headed towards privately trying to get him out. She will not do it publicly out of respect for Biden, but overnight several reports came out that she and Barack Obama are plotting.

Joe Biden bought himself some time with that press conference. The RNC is next week and the Democrats will not want to oust Biden while the Republicans are having their convention. They’ll wait for the GOP to finish an anti-Biden convention then replace Biden after it is done if they can get Biden to go along with the plan.

But that also gives Biden time to drag this out and keep the clock running on alternate scenarios. Dragging his out helps Biden decide he can stay in.

The bottom line is this: Democrats, despite their public denials, have all largely concluded Biden must go. They just don’t know when to do it or who to replace him with. And that means Biden is still in the driver’s seat and his ability to slow this down helps him.

That’s all good for Donald Trump.

Lastly, I notice a recurring pattern in the calls to oust Joe Biden. It’s all a bunch of white people. The most forceful defenses of Biden on TV come from the black community, like this from last night:

And this from the DNC Chairman on MSNBC:

I don’t have the clip handy, but Bakari Sellers on CNN has also been forcefully defending Joe Biden. It is a distinct pattern of white liberals wanting him gone and black liberals defending him.