The Pattern Continues

Special elections are special things, and special elections in ice storms are even more special. But the pattern of Republican seats flipping to Democrats has continued, and this time in Texas.

A state legislative seat that went for Donald Trump by 17 points in 2024 just went for a Democrat. Kelly Hancock, a Republican, had held the seat until being appointed Comptroller by Greg Abbott. The seat, Senate District 9, in Fort Worth, Texas, is a solid Republican district. Or at least it was.

Republicans are already making excuses about the weather, etc. But the bottom line is that Democrats were willing to brave freezing temperatures and bad weather to get a Democrat elected. Republicans were not.

There is a lot of chatter about the race in particular. Locals claim the local party did nothing to help. The losing Republican remained hostile towards the Republican who went into the final. The base picked a candidate who supposedly had earned a lot of animosity from voters. Still, the district went 17% for Trump in 2024 and 20% for the incumbent Republican in 2022.

Republicans are, like Democrats in 2010 and 2022, getting really good at waving away a series of special election losses as having no meaning. This is becoming a pattern.

But wait, there’s more.

Independent votes in the district who lean Republican generally leaned toward the Democrats this time, and a significant minority of Republicans did too.

“But these Republicans hate Trump,” say the people, ignoring that Trump won the district by 17 points.

Into this environment, scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is hoping to pick off incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn. Paxton is going through a messy divorce, has been investigated by the FBI, impeached but not convicted, and has more baggage than a garbage truck. Texas Republican activists hate John Cornyn for being too squishy. And in their hate, they risk elevating a man more easily beaten by Democrats, who, like in this race, get Independent voters and a significant minority of Republicans.

Trump is not on the ballot. He won’t be there to mobilize core Republican voters for Paxton in November. Democrats are motivated. Democrats are energized. Republicans show little inclination to turn out and even less if it rains.

Nominating Paxton could be suicide for the seat, handing a safe Republican U.S. Senate seat to Democrats.

Don’t say it is impossible.

Donald Trump won State Senate District 9 by seventeen points and only won Texas by thirteen points. In 2022, District 9 went for Republican Kelly Hancock by twenty points. But that district that outperformed the state for Trump just went to Democrats.

In practical terms, the win does not matter because it will be harder for the Democrat to win a midterm race in a general election. The Texas legislature does not even meet again until 2027. So he’ll be a State Senator, mostly in name only. But Republicans cannot just dismiss this loss, given how energized Democrats are and how unenthusiastic Republicans are.

The more hilarious irony in all of this is that, pressured by Donald Trump, Texas Republicans just redrew their congressional map to weaken existing Republican seats to wipe out several Democratic seats. Given the Democratic enthusiasm in State Senate District 9, the GOP may have just committed political suicide in Texas without realizing it.

The President would be wise to rally the troops to John Cornyn and take Texas out of play for Democrats. Republicans need the money they’d have to spend defending Paxton to beat John Ossoff and defend North Carolina from Roy Cooper. Republicans would have to spend way more money to help Paxton than to help Cornyn, and every dollar spent would not go to Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, or elsewhere.

Texas Republicans, do not Herschel Walker yourselves.