THE SHOW NOTES: Debate Day, SCOTUS Headlines, & Biden’s Major Polling Problems
THE SHOW NOTES: Debate Day, SCOTUS Headlines, & Biden’s Major Polling Problems
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HEADLINE: Michelle Obama's private frustration with the Bidens - Axios
🚨 MUST READ: Some of the intelligence officials who claimed the Hunter Biden laptop story was Russian disinformation were CIA contractors. - National Review
Me in World Magazine: The fall of Jamaal Bowman - World
NEW: Walgreens will close a significant number US stores - CNN
SCOTUS: Go read Ed Wheelan’s breakdown of today’s SCOTUS rulings.
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Debate Day
Donald Trump squares off against Joe Biden in Atlanta, Georgia on CNN tonight at 9 PM moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The unique debate agreement bypasses the decades-old practice of going through the Presidential Debate Commission and instead, both campaigns jointly negotiated terms with CNN.
Details: The debate will feature no opening statements, no live studio audience, and will run 90 minutes with two commercial breaks. Sitting down and prewritten notes will not be allowed. Only paper, pens, and water will be allowed on their podiums.
Here’s how it will look:
Biden’s Major Polling Problems
A New York Times/Sienna College poll conducted after Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 felony charges in New York shows him leading Joe Biden by four points among likely voters in a nationwide poll. Most notably, 26% of Black voters and 38% of Hispanic voters claim they plan to vote for Donald Trump this November.
A Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday also shows Donald Trump leading Biden by four points nationally and by 10 points among independent voters. This particular poll is extra worrisome to the Biden team because Quinnipiac has consistently been a left-leaning poll that has slightly favored the current President. Consider this polling trend from January to today:
A Gallup poll found that Donald Trump’s favorability is near a four-year high while Joe Biden’s has dipped to an 18-year low of 37%. Yikes.
🚨 But worst of all! Polling guru Nate Silver is officially giving Donald Trump a 66% chance of winning the election with a devastating headline reading, The presidential election isn't a toss-up.
Feuding Philadelphia Democrats Threaten Biden's 2024 Chances
A war within Philadelphia’s storied Democratic political machine threatens to cost President Joe Biden the blowout victory he’ll need in the city if he hopes to win reelection.
Leaders of Philadelphia’s Democratic Party have been feuding with progressives and organizers on the party’s left, amid disagreements over policy, the requirements of party discipline and the mechanics of engaging voters to get them to the polls.
It’s a dispute Biden can ill afford. Public polls and party operatives detect low enthusiasm for the 81-year-old president, concerns about his age and the uneven benefits of his economy, and increasing anger about the administration’s support for Israel in the war in Gaza. The president’s struggle to energize critical blocs of young and Black voters comes as his opponent — former President Donald Trump — has set his sights on courting those groups.
Full story at Bloomberg (paywall)
Yikes
Worth Reading
Trending news:
Schiff, Goldman critique Biden over omission of Hamas from White House sexual violence fact sheet - Jewish Insider
Biden seizes debate limelight for "Project 2025" push - Axios
A signature Biden law aimed to boost renewable energy. It also helped a solar company reap billions - AP
Taiwan warns against travel to China after execution threat - NBC
Jamie Dimon says America's school-to-job pipeline is broken - Axios
Russia Sends Waves of Troops to the Front in a Brutal Style of Fighting - NYT (free)
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION v. JARKESY E - SCOTUS
The Vanishing Islands That Failed to Vanish - NYT (paywall)
US Recurring Jobless Claims Rise to Highest Since End of 2021 - Bloomberg (paywall)
Outlier Poll Results Are Inevitable. They’re Also Sometimes Right. - NYT (paywall)
Market snapshot:
With the storms in the area, I hope the, ahem, power doesn't go out down at Turner...
Looks like Biden picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.
Must-read from The Liberal Patriot: https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/no-democracy-is-not-on-the-ballot
TL; DR: Almost as many of the people polled who are worried about "preserving/defending democracy" think that Biden is more of a threat to democracy than Trump is. Independents are giving the edge to Trump. And harping on "Convicted Felon Trump" is an unpleasant reminder of the lawfare that is going on. "Defending democracy" is as much anti-Biden as it is anti-Trump. Also, very few people care about J6.
From the article (bangs in original): "Similarly, over two waves of Democracy Corps’ battleground surveys, Biden and the Democrats were favored over Trump and the Republicans by an average of only 3.5 points on “presidents not being able to act as autocrats,” by 2.5 points on “democracy being secure,” and by 2 points on “protecting democracy” (first wave only). And Trump and the Republicans were favored over Biden and the Democrats by 1.5 points on “opposing extremism” (!) and by 5 points on “protecting the US constitution” (!!)."
Now, I think Trump is dead to rights on obstruction in the classified docs case, Hur's related comments about Biden and his classified docs notwithstanding. The DC case is flaky, and the Georgia case had--HAD--some legs, but GA's weird RICO law has never been pressure-tested in court--never mind Fani Willis's shenanigans. But the NY case was a flat-out kangaroo court.
The only ace in Biden's hand is abortion. The rest of his hand are rags. His hand is A-3-5-7-9, all mixed suits. Trump may only be holding a pair of deuces and a pair of treys, but that will beat ace-high all day long.