THE SHOW NOTES: Israeli Airstrikes, Debt Danger Ahead, & The Toolbelt Generation

Welcome! I am on vacation this week but The Show Notes must go on.

OUCH: RFK Jr. argues that Biden is a bigger threat to democracy than Trump - CNN

BOND: Trump secures $175 million bond in New York civil fraud case - ABC

LOL: Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek signs new law making drug possession a crime again - Oregon Live

NEW: Florida Supreme Court allows 6-week abortion ban to take effect, but voters will have the final say - NBC

HEADLINE: The New Magic Number for Retirement Is $1.46 Million. Here’s What It Tells Us. - WSJ (paywall)

Airstrikes

The Israeli government conducted an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus killing multiple high-ranking Iranian officials including Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, Iran’s top Quds Force commander in Lebanon and Syria.

Why this matters: The death of Mohammad Reza Zahedi is the most notable assassination of an Iranian official since Donald Trump authorized the airstrike on General Soleimani in 2020. Zahedi was Iran’s top man for the war on Israel and coordinated with Hamas on strategy and supplies for the war in Gaza.

Gaza: Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli government was responsible for an accidental airstrike that resulted in the deaths of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza. Outrage has been swift with calls for an investigation and multiple US charities pulling out of Gaza entirely.

A Million Simulations, One Verdict for US Economy: Debt Danger Ahead

The Congressional Budget Office warned in its latest projections that US federal government debt is on a path from 97% of GDP last year to 116% by 2034 — higher even than in World War II. The actual outlook is likely worse.

From tax revenue to defense spending and interest rates, the CBO forecasts released earlier this year are underpinned by rosy assumptions. Plug in the market’s current view on interest rates, and the debt-to-GDP ratio rises to 123% in 2034. Then assume — as most in Washington do — that ex-President Donald Trump’s tax cuts mainly stay in place, and the burden gets even higher.

With uncertainty about so many of the variables, Bloomberg Economics has run a million simulations to assess the fragility of the debt outlook. In 88% of the simulations, the results show the debt-to-GDP ratio is on an unsustainable path — defined as an increase over the next decade.

Full story at Bloomberg (paywall).

How Gen Z Is Becoming the Toolbelt Generation

America needs more plumbers, and Gen Z is answering the call.

Long beset by a labor crunch, the skilled trades are newly appealing to the youngest cohort of American workers, many of whom are choosing to leave the college path. Rising pay and new technologies in fields from welding to machine tooling are giving trade professions a face-lift, helping them shed the image of being dirty, low-end work. Growing skepticism about the return on a college education, the cost of which has soared in recent decades, is adding to their shine. 

Enrollment in vocational training programs is surging as overall enrollment in community colleges and four-year institutions has fallen. The number of students enrolled in vocational-focused community colleges rose 16% last year to its highest level since the National Student Clearinghouse began tracking such data in 2018. The ranks of students studying construction trades rose 23% during that time, while those in programs covering HVAC and vehicle maintenance and repair increased 7%. 

Full story at The Wall Street Journal (paywall).

Trending news:

• McConnell: I’ll stay in the Senate and fight the GOP ‘isolationist movement’ - Politico

• Iran vows revenge as it accuses Israel of deadly airstrike on Syria consulate in deepening Middle East crisis - CNN

• Biden, Xi Spoke by Phone to Manage World Tensions, Opportunities - Bloomberg (paywall)

• Americans love Florida, even if you don't - Nate Silver

• Unraveling Havana Syndrome: New evidence links the GRU's assassination Unit 29155 to mysterious attacks on U.S. officials and their families - The Insider

• Why danger remains for ill-fated ship that caused Baltimore bridge collapse - Yahoo

• Tesla shares fall after deliveries drop 8.5% from a year ago - CNBC

• Brock Purdy nearly doubles his salary due to a bonus from NFL's performance-based pay - Yahoo

• ‘Everything, Everywhere, All At Once’: U.S. Officials Warn of Increased Cyberthreats - Foreign Policy

• Panic in Haiti's capital as wild shooting fills streets - Reuters

• Why are Americans so unhappy?  - The Hill

• Rishi Sunak backs JK Rowling's right to free speech as Scotland's hate crime laws come into force - Dailymail

• How misinformation is making us fear our food - The Hill

• The Disarray Inside Boeing’s 737 Factory Before the Door Plug Blowout - WSJ (paywall)

Market snapshot: