THE SHOW NOTES: Manchin And The Senate, Israel In Gaza, & What Is Wrong With NBC?

Welcome! Joe Manchin will not seek re-election in West Virginia.

HEADLINE: Federal judge sides with DeSantis on transgender athletes, upholds ban on biological males on female teams - Fox News

OUTRAGE: The Washington Post pulled a cartoon criticizing Hamas.

NEW: Senate Democrats back down on Supreme Court ethics subpoenas after GOP threats - CNN

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Seriously, NBC?

NBC went after Ron DeSantis in this article for saying it was “out of bounds” for Vivek Ramaswamy to use Nikki Haley’s daughter in an attack against her in Wednesday’s debate. DeSantis told Fox, “I think the kids are out of bounds. I didn’t think that was an appropriate thing to do.”

NBC quote: “But out on the campaign trail, the governor does not shy from making a punchline out of Hunter Biden, 53, joking about his history of addiction and embarrassing details of his personal life that have surfaced publicly.”

Dumb: Apparently, NBC’s writers Alec Hernández and Alex Tabet don’t understand the difference between the President’s 53-year-old son who has been charged with multiple felonies and has leveraged his family name for shady overseas business deals, and Nikki Haley’s 25-year-old daughter who is barely out of college.

Manchin And The Senate

Joe Manchin’s surprise retirement from the US Senate raises new questions about the Democrats’ ability to retain control of the upper chamber. The 51-49 Democratic-controlled Senate is effectively tied with Manchin’s seat deemed an imminent flip to the Republicans by all prognosticators. Here are the six other seats Democrats are worried about:

Ohio: While Ohio just voted resoundingly to affirm abortion access in the state, the measure passed with no statewide elections on the ballot and pro-lifers being grossly outspent. In normal election cycles, Ohio has trended significantly toward Republicans going for Trump in 2016 and 2020, electing a Republican governor in 2020 and a Republican Senator in 2022. While Senator Sherrod Brown has held the seat since 2006, Brown faces an uphill battle in a state where Joe Biden remains deeply unpopular.

Arizona: Incumbent Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is seeking reelection as an independent opening the door to a three-way race. While the complex nature of the race is unprecedented, it stands to reason that Arizona Democrats may split their votes between Sinema and the Democratic nominee opening a viable path for the Republican. This concern for Democrats may be mitigated if Republicans nominate failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake who remains deeply unpopular with moderate Republicans across the state. Despite this, Joe Biden continues to be a drag on Democrats polling well behind Donald Trump.

Montana: In a state that went for Trump by 16 points, Jon Tester is inarguably one of the most vulnerable Senators in 2024. First elected in 2006, Tester faces a well-funded Navy Seal challenger with multiple high-profile deployments in a political environment increasingly centered around foreign policy. The Republican committee tasked with flipping the Senate red is chaired by none other than Steve Daines, the other Senator from Montana and someone with intimate knowledge of how to win statewide Montana elections.

Wisconsin: After Republican Senator Ron Johnson successfully won reelection in 2022 against a well-funded challenger in a political cycle that favored Democrats, all eyes are now turning to Democrat Tammy Baldwin’s odds of winning reelection next year. While Wisconsin has a mixed bag of results for Republicans in recent elections, Baldwin’s incumbency advantage is magnified by no major Republican stepping forward in the race.

Michigan: The elusive state of Michigan just got much more interesting for Republicans after a New York Times poll last week showed Biden well behind Donald Trump in a hypothetical matchup. The news is the latest headwind Michigan Democrats are facing after the retirement announcement of the longtime Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow.

Pennsylvania: After nearly defeating celebrity candidate Dr. Oz in last year’s Pennsylvania Senate election to replace the retiring Pat Toomey, David McCormick is challenging the unpopular Democrat incumbent Bob Casey Jr. McCormick is a well-known and well-funded candidate with a statewide campaign infrastructure ready to go. Complicating factors for Casey are multiple polls showing Joe Biden is a drag on moderate Pennsylvania Democrats.

Israel In Gaza

The Israeli government agreed to a daily four-hour ceasefire to allow civilians trapped in northern Gaza to flee south. The Biden administration welcomed the news but said more must be done to protect civilians.

Why this matters: As Israeli forces continue to surge deeper into Gaza City, they are reporting a growing number of battles with dug-in Hamas fighters who repeatedly disappear into the vast tunnel network beneath the city.

Context: As international pressure continues to mount on Israel to implement a total ceasefire, analysts tell The Wall Street Journal (paywall) that the Israeli plan is to “kill enough Hamas fighters and leaders to destroy the organization before it has to curtail the operation, while Hamas’s goal is a stalemate that will enable it to survive, damaged but still a force in Gaza.”

Trending news:

• On a visit to Israel, I have seen the horror that the world must never forget - NY Post

• FBI investigating letters with suspicious powder sent to election workers in multiple states - NBC

• How McConnell helped engineer Manchin’s exit - Politico

• Ticket prices are plunging ahead of Formula 1’s next race set on the Las Vegas Strip - CNN

• John Fetterman ticks off anti-Israel protesters by waving a single flag: 'shame' - Fox News

• The US Census Bureau estimates the world’s population has passed 8 billion - AP

• Saudi Arabia and a $1bn fighters’ lawsuit threaten UFC’s future - The Guardian

• Biden Supports UAW Organizing Tesla, Toyota Workers - Bloomberg (paywall)

• Tired of Biden and Trump, 10% of Swing-State Voters Back RFK Jr. - Bloomberg (paywall)

• Loneliness Isn’t Just Bad for Your Health—It’s Deadly - WSJ (paywall)

• Meta Strikes Deal to Return to China After 14 Years - WSJ (paywall)

Market snapshot: