THE SHOW NOTES: Tim Scott Is Out, Biden Keeps Losing, & How Hamas Planned The Attack

Welcome! Tim Scott ended his presidential bid and has no plans to endorse.

BREAKING: Secret Service agents protecting Hunter Biden’s daughter just fired shots at three car thieves but apparently missed? - The Messenger

DRAMA: Bill Burr’s wife flipped off Donald Trump at UFC 295.

WILD: Strip Clubs, Lewd Photos and a Boozy Hotel: The Toxic Atmosphere at Bank Regulator FDIC - WSJ (paywall)

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Panic On The Left

Democrats are panicked at the prospect of a Trump second term after new polling shows Joe Biden losing the electoral college vote to Donald Trump by a margin of 292 votes to 246 if a presidential election were held today.

Same: The data matches a Bloomberg poll released on Friday and a New York Times poll from earlier this month showing Joe Biden behind Trump in nearly every major swing state.

Bad to worse: Jonathan Martin at Politico asked Democrats what changes Biden needed to implement in order to win. Here are two quotes worth reading:

The level of despair was striking. Since beginning this column a year ago, I’ve written repeatedly about the chasm between what Democrats say in private versus public about Biden. Yet perhaps not since Trump’s 2016 election have the party’s leaders and lawmakers been so alarmed.

That’s in part for reasons Biden refuses to accept: his capacity to do the job. The oldest president in history when he first took the oath, Biden will not be able to govern and campaign in the manner of previous incumbents. He simply does not have the capacity to do it, and his staff doesn’t trust him to even try, as they make clear by blocking him from the press. Biden’s bid will give new meaning to a Rose Garden campaign, and it requires accommodation to that unavoidable fact of life.

Deception

The October 7th attacks were part of a years-long campaign by Hamas that lulled the Israelis into believing the terrorist organization was an increasingly moderate regime that primarily wanted to govern and rebuild the Gaza Strip before the surprise attack.

This is from The Washington Post (paywall)

To buttress that perception of moderation, clashes between Hamas and Israel ceased after 2021. The group notably refrained from jumping in on several occasions when its Gaza ally, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or PIJ, fired rockets or engaged militarily with Israel. To many in Israel, it was further evidence that Hamas had changed and no longer sought a bloody conflict. Some reports suggested that Hamas officials even passed along intelligence about PIJ to the Israelis to reinforce the impression that they were being cooperative.

Details: The ruse went so far as to create an alternate reality that highlighted peace and normalcy on radio channels Hamas knew the Israelis were surveilling while they relied on handheld radios and land-wire networks inside the infamous tunnels to openly communicate.

Context: Yehiya Sinwar, the plan’s architect, is a self-described student of Israeli political culture who waited until the country was distracted by controversial judicial reform measures and increased violence in the West Bank before the carefully coordinated attack was executed.

Trending news:

• BREAKING: Maryanne Trump Barry, Trump’s Sister, Dies at 86 - The Messenger

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• Megan Rapinoe says injury during championship game is ‘proof’ God doesn’t exist - NY Post

• San Francisco Finally Cleans Up Its Drug Markets and Encampments — for Xi Jinping’s Arrival - National Review

• Confronting Cellphones in Schools - National Review

• US conducts airstrikes against Iran-backed groups in Syria, retaliating for attacks on US troops - AP

• U.S. strikes more Iran-linked sites in Syria, Pentagon says - Axios

• The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth - BBC

• Feds peruse client list of powerful ‘johns’ after bust of high-end prostitution ring - Washington Times

• MAGA-dominated state Republican parties plagued by infighting, money woes - MSN

• China’s Economic Recovery Is Losing Momentum, Data Show - Bloomberg (paywall)

Market snapshot: