In the United Nations, the United States sided with Russia, Belarus, and North Korea — three authoritarian regimes currently rampaging through parts of Ukraine — against a General Assembly resolution that noted Russia is the aggressor the Ukrainian invasion.
The proximate cause of this war is the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 22 Feb 2022. The root cause, however, goes back more than thirty years. In 1990 after the Berlin Wall fell, Gorbachev agreed to the unification of Germany in exchange for a US promise not to expand NATO. Our promise was good for about ten years until the Clinton Administration agreed to admit Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. US foreign policy realists such as George Kennan and Henry Kissinger warned against NATO's march eastward. But NATO kept expanding under Bush and Obama until it was knocking on Ukraine's door. All the while, the US meddled in Ukraine's politics and supported the overthrow of Yanukovych, the pro-Russian president, in Feb 2014. Putin promptly seized full control of Crimea. The West accused him of aggression and pushed the "open-door" policy for any European country (especially Ukraine) to join NATO. Tensions remained high, as both sides dug in. In Nov 2021 Putin drew his redline: A guarantee of no NATO membership for Ukraine. The West refused. In Feb 2022 Putin, seeing weakness in Biden and supported by China, invaded Ukraine and now controls about 20% of its area and 3.5M people. So, who's the ultimate aggressor?
what makes you think Trump has any interest in confronting China? if he abandons Europe with such ease, why would he support Taiwan or any of our Asian allies? Taiwan can easily be portrayed as a leftist paradise that won't fight for its own country by the drive-by populist media. it's toast
"The Trump Administration’s public statements on Ukraine cater to an increasingly hyper-online right. The statements and sentiments are not only not aligned with most Republican voters, but they are not aligned with most Americans who understand Russia’s dictator is not our friend."
What leader and country is really the friend of the US? There is a giant weakness in the media chattering class to mistake pleasant friendly speech with it being all the evidence of friendliness. The effeminate European leadership has taken up this vulnerable narcissist method to be sticky sweet in presentation while talking about how they would like to see the US collapse and doing what the can to benefit the EU at the expense of US interests.
There is nothing to be gained with this stupid never-left-high-school "tell me you like me pleeezzee!" type of craving. Who the eff cares? Do all the leaders of the world live Xi? I would say that most of the leaders in the world despise him. But China does what is in China's interest.
It seem to me that Erick is way too sensitive to what others think, and is willing to have the US keep giving away its interests in order to stay liked. That is not the stuff of leadership. That is not the stuff of real men, frankly.
Is the Trump policy on Ukraine and Russia good for the US long-term, or is the old status quo where Democrats, necons and the deep state have leveraged this media narrative of evil Putin connected with evil Trump? I will take door #1 any time given the state of the world under the old status quo.
"Trump is not Biden". He's also not Bush 43, Bush 41 or Reagan. Or any other American president because none of the others have backed Putin/Russia over an ally or asked for reparations of a country that we voluntarily helped. That used to be what we called "American Exceptionalism". It is gone now, probably forever. But let's don't talk about the damage to Americas reputation. It's tarnished for a long, long time because of this.
Before we make the Ukrainians throw in the towel, I sure would like to see what they could do if freed of the restrictions that Biden placed on their use of our military aid (to wit, no such use on Russian territory). Due to those restrictions, Russia has not really been at war with Ukraine: it has only been at war IN Ukraine.
Let the Ukrainians level of couple of Russian cities in the same way the Russians have done to them, then let's see if Putin still wants to fight. If Trump is as tough as many seem to think he is, when Putin tries flexing his nukes again, our President should ask who it is that he's talking to. If it's the Ukrainians, let them decide if they want to risk it. If it's us, and Trump still wants to be the leader of the free world, Putin needs to be reminded that we've got nukes too.
Before we force the Ukrainians to throw in the towel, I sure would like to see what they could do if freed of the restrictions that Biden placed on their use of our military aid (to wit, no such use in Russian territory). As a result of those restrictions, Russia hasn't really been at war with Ukraine: they have only been at war IN Ukraine.
After the Ukrainians have leveled a couple of Russian cities in the same way the Russians have done to them, then let's see if Putin still wants to fight. If Trump is the bad ass so many of you seem to think he is, when Putin tries flexing his nukes again, our President will ask who the hell he's talking to. If he's threatening the Ukrainians, let them decide whether they want to risk it. If he's talking to us, Putin needs to be reminded that we've got nukes too.
Before we force the Ukrainians to throw in the towel, I sure would like to see what they could do if freed from the restrictions Biden imposed on their use of our military aid (to wit, no such use in Russian territory). As a result of those restrictions, Russia is not really at war with Ukraine, it is only at war IN Ukraine.
After the Ukrainians level a couple of Russian cities in the same way the Russians have done to Ukraine, then let's see if Putin wants to talk. If Trump is the bad ass that so many of you seem to think he is, when Putin tries to flex his nukes again, our President should ask him who the hell he's talking to. If he's talking about nuking the Ukrainians, we should leave the decision to them as to whether they want to risk it. If he's talking about us, our President should firmly remind him that we've got nukes too.
From The Institute for the Study of War, the very honorable Gen. Jack Keane's organization, an article I came across the other day that is relevant here:
"Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans"
Firstly, I was relieved to hear Sec. Rubio's run down of his skepticism of Putin in an interview on Fox on Monday.
Secondly, here is the first paragraph of the article detailing how Putin has co-opted/Federal used veteran's civil organizations. Similar to how he shut down a mother's of veterans organization, too. It's telling that the '80s USSR had more freedom than Putin's Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a coordinated campaign in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society in Russia, likely out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return from Ukraine. The Kremlin launched several initiatives to co-opt loyalist veteran figures and form state-controlled veterans organizations in support of the permanent militarization of Russian society at the federal, regional, and local levels. The Kremlin seeks to silence voices capable of meaningfully objecting to the continuation of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine or questioning Russian government decisions. Putin is likely trying to avoid a modern analog to the veterans-based civil society born from the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Kremlin likely fears political instability such as what followed the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988-1989. It is falsely framing its current initiatives to co-opt veteran life as preventative measures against the reemergence of “Afghan syndrome” — a popular Russian term used to describe the aftermath of the Soviet government’s failure to reintegrate psychologically traumatized Soviet veterans into Russian society upon their return from Afghanistan.[1] It is thus using the cover of “preventing Afghan syndrome” as an excuse to prevent the emergence of civil society groups that could have credibility among the population as well as organizational ability but might not remain loyal to Putin himself or his decisions and actions.
“If Putin drags out talks and does not seem vested in ending the war, the Trump Administration will redouble American efforts to help Ukraine.”
What nonsense you write, and are nothing more than an apologist for Trump’s nonsensical attitude towards both Putin and Europe.
The UN resolution merely said that “with concern that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation” has had “devastating and long-lasting consequences” and called for “an early cessation of hostilities.”
Too much for Trump to agree with, might scare off Putin?
Here’s the Polish Foreign Minister at the UN the other day. In seven minutes he spoke truth to power, unlike POTUS.
Got scant attention here in the US because they aren’t threatened and have little awareness of history.
And by the way, yesterday, Lavrov was quoted as saying that Russia was ruling out any deal that allowed for Ukraine to be “pumped up with [western] weapons again” and that Russia wanted “what remains of Ukraine” to scrap “racist laws” restricting the Russian language and Russian culture.
Erick- rarely things like this are ever explain in enough detail that, in my mind, that if someone does not agree with it that individual would in the end understand on why something is done. Trump is looking at what needs to be done at the moment that might not be clear at the present, but there is a long-term goal behind it that must be achieve. In Trump's long-term thinking makes sense. Most elected leaders sometimes do not think "long-term" when doing something.
Has anyone including the EU come up with a plan to end this ? We can’t keep shoveling money at this and the EU has to actually do something the UK has more horses than tanks more admirals than ships maybe they should invest in there security and give us a break after all we are 36 trillion in debt
Erick, your explanation of the Trump Administration's thinking just shows how ignorant and naive they are.
"First, President Trump wants to make clear to Ukraine, which pushed the General Assembly resolution, that it is not in a public relations fight, but a real war. Some in the Trump Administration think Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has spent more energy on publicity than winning."
Ukrainians know they are in a real war! Hundreds of thousands civilians and soldiers have already died! Reason why Zelensky has had to focus on "publicity" is because the US and Europe have constantly questioned the need to supply weapons. Ukraine has fought a proxy war so that American and European soldiers do not need to respond if Putin wins and takes the battle westward to a NATO country.
Regarding the mineral deal that is part of the peace negotations, this is based on an inaccurate understanding of what mineral resources Ukraine has and where they are located. No rare earth resources, but there are mineral resources such as potash, coal, etc. that are located in the four regions annexed by Russia. That is why Putin wanted these regions because of their economic potential and their historical and ethnic alignment with Russia. Putin and his advisors are slapping each other on the back because the deal that Trump proposed will fund mining of resources in Russian territory.
This is naive and ignorant foreign policy and what makes matters worse is when Steve Feinberg, his pick for Deputy Defense Secretary, has to tow the line on this naivety since independent thinking is not allowed in the Trump White House.
It’s a good article and brings up a good point. And Russia legit would benefit from all this and could drag out the war…. If they were still a super power. They are not. They can’t even decisively win against Ukraine much less hold out much longer.
Zelenskyy got greedy. He liked the big fat checks coming in from the US so he didn’t really do anything to win the war. Just stalemate it until Russia relented.
Bottom line is the US thanks to Biden, needs to have this war end quick and stop the gravy train of money to Ukraine.
All this talk of Trump is in the pocket or friends of Putin is pure nonsense.
And good look or not. Europe is the one looking weak. Are we back in the WW2 situation were Europe can’t do anything about an aggressive nation without our help?
Very good article Erick. People may not like the approach but they need to understand it. China coupling with Russia presents a grave geopolitical threat. If heaven forbid military action were required in the South China Sea, our navy would clearly be at a disadvantage. The Ukraine war needs to end now and negotiations are complex. This is far bigger than Putin’s evil he must be destroyed. That’s a simplistic view whose time has long past.
The proximate cause of this war is the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 22 Feb 2022. The root cause, however, goes back more than thirty years. In 1990 after the Berlin Wall fell, Gorbachev agreed to the unification of Germany in exchange for a US promise not to expand NATO. Our promise was good for about ten years until the Clinton Administration agreed to admit Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. US foreign policy realists such as George Kennan and Henry Kissinger warned against NATO's march eastward. But NATO kept expanding under Bush and Obama until it was knocking on Ukraine's door. All the while, the US meddled in Ukraine's politics and supported the overthrow of Yanukovych, the pro-Russian president, in Feb 2014. Putin promptly seized full control of Crimea. The West accused him of aggression and pushed the "open-door" policy for any European country (especially Ukraine) to join NATO. Tensions remained high, as both sides dug in. In Nov 2021 Putin drew his redline: A guarantee of no NATO membership for Ukraine. The West refused. In Feb 2022 Putin, seeing weakness in Biden and supported by China, invaded Ukraine and now controls about 20% of its area and 3.5M people. So, who's the ultimate aggressor?
what makes you think Trump has any interest in confronting China? if he abandons Europe with such ease, why would he support Taiwan or any of our Asian allies? Taiwan can easily be portrayed as a leftist paradise that won't fight for its own country by the drive-by populist media. it's toast
"The Trump Administration’s public statements on Ukraine cater to an increasingly hyper-online right. The statements and sentiments are not only not aligned with most Republican voters, but they are not aligned with most Americans who understand Russia’s dictator is not our friend."
What leader and country is really the friend of the US? There is a giant weakness in the media chattering class to mistake pleasant friendly speech with it being all the evidence of friendliness. The effeminate European leadership has taken up this vulnerable narcissist method to be sticky sweet in presentation while talking about how they would like to see the US collapse and doing what the can to benefit the EU at the expense of US interests.
There is nothing to be gained with this stupid never-left-high-school "tell me you like me pleeezzee!" type of craving. Who the eff cares? Do all the leaders of the world live Xi? I would say that most of the leaders in the world despise him. But China does what is in China's interest.
It seem to me that Erick is way too sensitive to what others think, and is willing to have the US keep giving away its interests in order to stay liked. That is not the stuff of leadership. That is not the stuff of real men, frankly.
Is the Trump policy on Ukraine and Russia good for the US long-term, or is the old status quo where Democrats, necons and the deep state have leveraged this media narrative of evil Putin connected with evil Trump? I will take door #1 any time given the state of the world under the old status quo.
"Trump is not Biden". He's also not Bush 43, Bush 41 or Reagan. Or any other American president because none of the others have backed Putin/Russia over an ally or asked for reparations of a country that we voluntarily helped. That used to be what we called "American Exceptionalism". It is gone now, probably forever. But let's don't talk about the damage to Americas reputation. It's tarnished for a long, long time because of this.
Although I cannot imagine what was wrong with my last post, I apologize if I said anything inappropriate.
Before we make the Ukrainians throw in the towel, I sure would like to see what they could do if freed of the restrictions that Biden placed on their use of our military aid (to wit, no such use on Russian territory). Due to those restrictions, Russia has not really been at war with Ukraine: it has only been at war IN Ukraine.
Let the Ukrainians level of couple of Russian cities in the same way the Russians have done to them, then let's see if Putin still wants to fight. If Trump is as tough as many seem to think he is, when Putin tries flexing his nukes again, our President should ask who it is that he's talking to. If it's the Ukrainians, let them decide if they want to risk it. If it's us, and Trump still wants to be the leader of the free world, Putin needs to be reminded that we've got nukes too.
Before we force the Ukrainians to throw in the towel, I sure would like to see what they could do if freed of the restrictions that Biden placed on their use of our military aid (to wit, no such use in Russian territory). As a result of those restrictions, Russia hasn't really been at war with Ukraine: they have only been at war IN Ukraine.
After the Ukrainians have leveled a couple of Russian cities in the same way the Russians have done to them, then let's see if Putin still wants to fight. If Trump is the bad ass so many of you seem to think he is, when Putin tries flexing his nukes again, our President will ask who the hell he's talking to. If he's threatening the Ukrainians, let them decide whether they want to risk it. If he's talking to us, Putin needs to be reminded that we've got nukes too.
Before we force the Ukrainians to throw in the towel, I sure would like to see what they could do if freed from the restrictions Biden imposed on their use of our military aid (to wit, no such use in Russian territory). As a result of those restrictions, Russia is not really at war with Ukraine, it is only at war IN Ukraine.
After the Ukrainians level a couple of Russian cities in the same way the Russians have done to Ukraine, then let's see if Putin wants to talk. If Trump is the bad ass that so many of you seem to think he is, when Putin tries to flex his nukes again, our President should ask him who the hell he's talking to. If he's talking about nuking the Ukrainians, we should leave the decision to them as to whether they want to risk it. If he's talking about us, our President should firmly remind him that we've got nukes too.
From The Institute for the Study of War, the very honorable Gen. Jack Keane's organization, an article I came across the other day that is relevant here:
"Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans"
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-unlikely-demobilize-event-ceasefire-because-he-afraid-his-veterans
Firstly, I was relieved to hear Sec. Rubio's run down of his skepticism of Putin in an interview on Fox on Monday.
Secondly, here is the first paragraph of the article detailing how Putin has co-opted/Federal used veteran's civil organizations. Similar to how he shut down a mother's of veterans organization, too. It's telling that the '80s USSR had more freedom than Putin's Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a coordinated campaign in late 2022 and early 2023 to prevent the emergence of an independent veterans-based civil society in Russia, likely out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return from Ukraine. The Kremlin launched several initiatives to co-opt loyalist veteran figures and form state-controlled veterans organizations in support of the permanent militarization of Russian society at the federal, regional, and local levels. The Kremlin seeks to silence voices capable of meaningfully objecting to the continuation of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine or questioning Russian government decisions. Putin is likely trying to avoid a modern analog to the veterans-based civil society born from the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Kremlin likely fears political instability such as what followed the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988-1989. It is falsely framing its current initiatives to co-opt veteran life as preventative measures against the reemergence of “Afghan syndrome” — a popular Russian term used to describe the aftermath of the Soviet government’s failure to reintegrate psychologically traumatized Soviet veterans into Russian society upon their return from Afghanistan.[1] It is thus using the cover of “preventing Afghan syndrome” as an excuse to prevent the emergence of civil society groups that could have credibility among the population as well as organizational ability but might not remain loyal to Putin himself or his decisions and actions.
“If Putin drags out talks and does not seem vested in ending the war, the Trump Administration will redouble American efforts to help Ukraine.”
What nonsense you write, and are nothing more than an apologist for Trump’s nonsensical attitude towards both Putin and Europe.
The UN resolution merely said that “with concern that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation” has had “devastating and long-lasting consequences” and called for “an early cessation of hostilities.”
Too much for Trump to agree with, might scare off Putin?
Here’s the Polish Foreign Minister at the UN the other day. In seven minutes he spoke truth to power, unlike POTUS.
Got scant attention here in the US because they aren’t threatened and have little awareness of history.
https://youtu.be/p4JFNtlxz9k
Trump is acting like a hot mess, not a leader.
And by the way, yesterday, Lavrov was quoted as saying that Russia was ruling out any deal that allowed for Ukraine to be “pumped up with [western] weapons again” and that Russia wanted “what remains of Ukraine” to scrap “racist laws” restricting the Russian language and Russian culture.
Go, Marco!!
Erick- rarely things like this are ever explain in enough detail that, in my mind, that if someone does not agree with it that individual would in the end understand on why something is done. Trump is looking at what needs to be done at the moment that might not be clear at the present, but there is a long-term goal behind it that must be achieve. In Trump's long-term thinking makes sense. Most elected leaders sometimes do not think "long-term" when doing something.
Has anyone including the EU come up with a plan to end this ? We can’t keep shoveling money at this and the EU has to actually do something the UK has more horses than tanks more admirals than ships maybe they should invest in there security and give us a break after all we are 36 trillion in debt
Erick, your explanation of the Trump Administration's thinking just shows how ignorant and naive they are.
"First, President Trump wants to make clear to Ukraine, which pushed the General Assembly resolution, that it is not in a public relations fight, but a real war. Some in the Trump Administration think Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has spent more energy on publicity than winning."
Ukrainians know they are in a real war! Hundreds of thousands civilians and soldiers have already died! Reason why Zelensky has had to focus on "publicity" is because the US and Europe have constantly questioned the need to supply weapons. Ukraine has fought a proxy war so that American and European soldiers do not need to respond if Putin wins and takes the battle westward to a NATO country.
Regarding the mineral deal that is part of the peace negotations, this is based on an inaccurate understanding of what mineral resources Ukraine has and where they are located. No rare earth resources, but there are mineral resources such as potash, coal, etc. that are located in the four regions annexed by Russia. That is why Putin wanted these regions because of their economic potential and their historical and ethnic alignment with Russia. Putin and his advisors are slapping each other on the back because the deal that Trump proposed will fund mining of resources in Russian territory.
This is naive and ignorant foreign policy and what makes matters worse is when Steve Feinberg, his pick for Deputy Defense Secretary, has to tow the line on this naivety since independent thinking is not allowed in the Trump White House.
https://www.instagram.com/senmarkkelly/reel/DGguMmkSBJ8/
It’s a good article and brings up a good point. And Russia legit would benefit from all this and could drag out the war…. If they were still a super power. They are not. They can’t even decisively win against Ukraine much less hold out much longer.
Zelenskyy got greedy. He liked the big fat checks coming in from the US so he didn’t really do anything to win the war. Just stalemate it until Russia relented.
Bottom line is the US thanks to Biden, needs to have this war end quick and stop the gravy train of money to Ukraine.
All this talk of Trump is in the pocket or friends of Putin is pure nonsense.
And good look or not. Europe is the one looking weak. Are we back in the WW2 situation were Europe can’t do anything about an aggressive nation without our help?
Very good article Erick. People may not like the approach but they need to understand it. China coupling with Russia presents a grave geopolitical threat. If heaven forbid military action were required in the South China Sea, our navy would clearly be at a disadvantage. The Ukraine war needs to end now and negotiations are complex. This is far bigger than Putin’s evil he must be destroyed. That’s a simplistic view whose time has long past.
The Trump administration can accomplish all of these goals without the dishonorable lies and deceit. We are America … let’s act like it.