The New York Times has a report that we have undercounted the death toll from COVID-19 by perhaps 40,000 people. Separately, the Financial Times has a report that we may have missed the global death toll by 60% of cases. Concurrent to both of those is a growing belief among a lot of people that the death toll is not only overblown, but the virus is far more common and widespread than believed. The second part of this comes from the rush of press reports about antibody studies. To be sure, it appears the virus is more widespread, and more people have it. However, it is not nearly as widespread as some on the right think; the initial studies were pretty deeply flawed; and there is evidence some of the antibody tests were just bad, including triggering a positive based on the common cold.
It's easy to draw false conclusions about antibodies and the number of asymptomatic Corona patients. It is has been known for months that there was at least a 2x-5x factor of Corona patients with little or no symptoms, with only about 20% of those with positive tests requiring hospitalizations. In the early days of test shortages, people who didn't pass pre-test screenings, were not getting tested. This means the number of people with Corona antibodies is certainly more than the number of positive tests by a 2x-5x ratio. New York state now has a 7000 person study that shows 14.9% of those sampled have Corona antibodies. About 1.5% of the population of New York have tested positive ( 293K tested positive out of 19.4 Million population ), which means a 10x ratio of antibodies/positive-tests.
In any case, if 15% of the population of New York state has been infected with Corona , it is still about 4x short of the 60% infection rate required to receive a significant amount of herd immunity. New York currently has nearly 300K cases and 22.6K deaths or about a 7.5% fatality rate for tested Corona patients. If one assumes the 10x reduction for undetected Corona cases, this reduces too a 0.75% fatality rate. But if one also assumes 4x the number of current deaths to get to a 60% infection rate, this would mean New York state alone would have about 90K deaths, making it worse than a bad flu year for the entire US (typically 20K - 70K). Although there are good reasons to restart the economy, ignoring common sense steps to prevent the spread of Corona (such as social distancing wherever practical) is not a logically defensible position.
My mother tongue is not English and I was always impressed by your use of words and command over the English Language.
Just wanted to let you know you use words which are not commonly used in the US English. Like, yesterday during your Radio show in the evening you used a word BIFURCATE and this is not a common word used in the US. May be it comes to you from the British system schooling in Dubai.
The state motto of New Hampshire rings a bell. Live free or Die. But like Erick mentioned, we need to add "balance" to that. If your like me you cant sit still. I have adopted two mottos my self from my life experiences. "Work the problem. Find a solution." & "The only easy day was yesterday". We will overcome this and voices like Erick's, help us rationally realize the facts to work the problem and find solutions for what we have in our control, while realizing the need to move forward and let yesterday be a building block for today and tomorrow.
Good article, Erick. You have become my official source for information on all aspects of this pandemic. Thank God you have the patience (and TIME) to filter through all the white noise and give us reliable data with which to make our own decisions. QUESTION: I have read many times that the lab in Wuhan is now the primary suspect for the origins of this virus, but is there any real evidence suggesting it was intentionally released by China in the hopes of harming the US economy? If so, it would add one ginormous reason for pushing to get this country rolling again.
Good morning Erick, Nice. I not only enjoy the content, but I also like how you draw your readers in and hit them up the head with the reality of our situation for the conclusion.
Do you know we here in Georgia we can be tested for antibodies?
In December, after returning from a cruise, I am pretty sure I had the corona virus. Started with sore throat and continuous cough. Had 104 fever for 3 days followed by 100.5 for another 5 days. Tested negative for flu. Required a breathing treatment. There were 21 in our travel group. Everyone got some form of it. I was told it was just weird form of the flu
I had very much the same thing, but I don't think it was possible for it to be COVID-19 unless the Chinese are telling the truth and the virus came from the United States to China.
It's easy to draw false conclusions about antibodies and the number of asymptomatic Corona patients. It is has been known for months that there was at least a 2x-5x factor of Corona patients with little or no symptoms, with only about 20% of those with positive tests requiring hospitalizations. In the early days of test shortages, people who didn't pass pre-test screenings, were not getting tested. This means the number of people with Corona antibodies is certainly more than the number of positive tests by a 2x-5x ratio. New York state now has a 7000 person study that shows 14.9% of those sampled have Corona antibodies. About 1.5% of the population of New York have tested positive ( 293K tested positive out of 19.4 Million population ), which means a 10x ratio of antibodies/positive-tests.
In any case, if 15% of the population of New York state has been infected with Corona , it is still about 4x short of the 60% infection rate required to receive a significant amount of herd immunity. New York currently has nearly 300K cases and 22.6K deaths or about a 7.5% fatality rate for tested Corona patients. If one assumes the 10x reduction for undetected Corona cases, this reduces too a 0.75% fatality rate. But if one also assumes 4x the number of current deaths to get to a 60% infection rate, this would mean New York state alone would have about 90K deaths, making it worse than a bad flu year for the entire US (typically 20K - 70K). Although there are good reasons to restart the economy, ignoring common sense steps to prevent the spread of Corona (such as social distancing wherever practical) is not a logically defensible position.
Excellent writing Erick.
My mother tongue is not English and I was always impressed by your use of words and command over the English Language.
Just wanted to let you know you use words which are not commonly used in the US English. Like, yesterday during your Radio show in the evening you used a word BIFURCATE and this is not a common word used in the US. May be it comes to you from the British system schooling in Dubai.
The state motto of New Hampshire rings a bell. Live free or Die. But like Erick mentioned, we need to add "balance" to that. If your like me you cant sit still. I have adopted two mottos my self from my life experiences. "Work the problem. Find a solution." & "The only easy day was yesterday". We will overcome this and voices like Erick's, help us rationally realize the facts to work the problem and find solutions for what we have in our control, while realizing the need to move forward and let yesterday be a building block for today and tomorrow.
Good article, Erick. You have become my official source for information on all aspects of this pandemic. Thank God you have the patience (and TIME) to filter through all the white noise and give us reliable data with which to make our own decisions. QUESTION: I have read many times that the lab in Wuhan is now the primary suspect for the origins of this virus, but is there any real evidence suggesting it was intentionally released by China in the hopes of harming the US economy? If so, it would add one ginormous reason for pushing to get this country rolling again.
Good morning Erick, Nice. I not only enjoy the content, but I also like how you draw your readers in and hit them up the head with the reality of our situation for the conclusion.
Do you know we here in Georgia we can be tested for antibodies?
In December, after returning from a cruise, I am pretty sure I had the corona virus. Started with sore throat and continuous cough. Had 104 fever for 3 days followed by 100.5 for another 5 days. Tested negative for flu. Required a breathing treatment. There were 21 in our travel group. Everyone got some form of it. I was told it was just weird form of the flu
I had very much the same thing, but I don't think it was possible for it to be COVID-19 unless the Chinese are telling the truth and the virus came from the United States to China.