In 2016, I got it wrong. I was convinced Clinton would win. Her losing forced on some needed humility about my perspective on politics. Now, I’m routinely accused of saying Trump will lose or that I have betrayed my values by saying I’d vote for the guy. There’s not really any winning or even fun to be had by doing what I perceive as calling balls and strikes. But I want to do that anyway and give you my honest and candid take on all of this.
Here I write my Philadelphia Blues. In West Philly about every other pole has a sign on it "Vote; Make a Plan." I was hoping to vote in person on November 3rd, but now I wonder whether the State of PA wants me to tell them that on a website they've set up. Our partisan, Soros-admiring District Attorney is setting up a group to counteract "voter intimidation." I wonder whether that will include prosecuting anyone who steals a yard sign for Trump, of which there are few in Philadelphia, but there are some.
This group of Americans only voted in 2016 and will also vote in 2020 - No, they did not vote in 2018. Therefore, voter turnout or results from 2018 are not entirely accurate or telling for the 2020 presidential race. This is a significant group that is overlooked in much of the analysis provided in the media.
It's amazing to see the incredible depth of personality politics. This election is more and more looking like a middle-school class president contest with less maturity than middle-school candidates. It seems like so many are allowing themselves to be whipped up into a franticly seething emotional mess because they hate one of the candidates and love the other while completely ignoring the things they stand for. Apparently Presidents come and go, but the Legislative and Judicial branches hang around forever. Is it really too much to ask for people to think their political decisions all the way through before pulling the lever??
Biden wins in a blowout. People are tired of Trumps antics. It's really quite easy to see how this is going to turn out. No need to go into all of this minutiae or analysis. The real question is are the flag waving patriots going to side with the country or with the wannabe dictator when he decides that he is not going to leave the White House after losing. The outcome of the vote will not be close enough to claim fraud IMO.
Despite the scriptural injuction against worry, your post plus these comments provide a lively discussion and give me lots to think--and worry--about. Impacting all of this is the unmentioned reality of voter fraud. With ballot harvesting a surety from Democrats, with boxes of ballots already being found discarded in ditches, with voters posting photos on Facebook and Twitter of the multiple ballots received at their homes belonging to former residents or family members who have died, it will take a fairly decisive [read: overwhelming] turnout of in-person voters on Nov. 3rd for me to trust that the outcome is what real voters (not the deceased or family pets) actually wanted.
I believe people on both sides who are predicting an election blow-out are counting their chickens before they are hatched. I think the most likely election result is similar to 2016, with the Democrats winning the popular vote by a few percent (due to Trump hatred and huge margins in states like CA/NY) and an electoral college result that could go either way based on slim margins in swing states. I don’t see evidence for many people changing sides in this election.
Erick tends to bring up Trump’s narrow wins in MI, WI, PA. But Republicans haven’t won these states for decades, including Bush’s razor-thin EC-margin in 2000 (271-266) and his 286-251 EC-margin in 2004 (winning Iowa and NM). Bush was able to win VA in 2000/2004, but since 2006-2010 seem the Democrats seem to own VA (having both Senators and the governor) and winning the EC votes in 2008, 2012 and 2016 (i.e. a pre-Trump pattern of GOP losing this state).
I believe there are a set of Never Trump voters who supported Ted Cruz that sat out the 2016 election and that many of this group will vote for Trump in 2020. I believe this will more than offset any reluctant Trump-voters who may vote for Biden in 2020. But I think any Trump victory depends on how large the set of so-called hidden-Trump voters is. Surveys suggest many voters in this group may be feeding false information to pollsters due to fear of progressive retribution.
If hidden Trump supporters are for real, perhaps they want to see a repeat of the sad faces on election night 2016, when the prediction of Hillary’s landslide was not to be. My view is that the smart money is on a close election in which national polls of a few thousand people cannot possibly predict the thoughts of millions of wavering voters who will likely decide swing state elections by 1-2 percentage points. The past is easier to predict that the future.
Erick, your analysis of these present dynamics may be interesting to seasoned political junkies such as yourself. But your contribution to the essential public discourse would be better directed toward shedding light on the real issues that determine the future direction of our nation.
Such as: where do we draw the lines between public responsibility and private? And what will be the likely consequences of devaluation of our money and financial institutions due to .gov and Fed interventions? or lack thereof.
Here I write my Philadelphia Blues. In West Philly about every other pole has a sign on it "Vote; Make a Plan." I was hoping to vote in person on November 3rd, but now I wonder whether the State of PA wants me to tell them that on a website they've set up. Our partisan, Soros-admiring District Attorney is setting up a group to counteract "voter intimidation." I wonder whether that will include prosecuting anyone who steals a yard sign for Trump, of which there are few in Philadelphia, but there are some.
There are the stand-alone Trump voters.
This group of Americans only voted in 2016 and will also vote in 2020 - No, they did not vote in 2018. Therefore, voter turnout or results from 2018 are not entirely accurate or telling for the 2020 presidential race. This is a significant group that is overlooked in much of the analysis provided in the media.
It's amazing to see the incredible depth of personality politics. This election is more and more looking like a middle-school class president contest with less maturity than middle-school candidates. It seems like so many are allowing themselves to be whipped up into a franticly seething emotional mess because they hate one of the candidates and love the other while completely ignoring the things they stand for. Apparently Presidents come and go, but the Legislative and Judicial branches hang around forever. Is it really too much to ask for people to think their political decisions all the way through before pulling the lever??
Biden wins in a blowout. People are tired of Trumps antics. It's really quite easy to see how this is going to turn out. No need to go into all of this minutiae or analysis. The real question is are the flag waving patriots going to side with the country or with the wannabe dictator when he decides that he is not going to leave the White House after losing. The outcome of the vote will not be close enough to claim fraud IMO.
Despite the scriptural injuction against worry, your post plus these comments provide a lively discussion and give me lots to think--and worry--about. Impacting all of this is the unmentioned reality of voter fraud. With ballot harvesting a surety from Democrats, with boxes of ballots already being found discarded in ditches, with voters posting photos on Facebook and Twitter of the multiple ballots received at their homes belonging to former residents or family members who have died, it will take a fairly decisive [read: overwhelming] turnout of in-person voters on Nov. 3rd for me to trust that the outcome is what real voters (not the deceased or family pets) actually wanted.
I believe people on both sides who are predicting an election blow-out are counting their chickens before they are hatched. I think the most likely election result is similar to 2016, with the Democrats winning the popular vote by a few percent (due to Trump hatred and huge margins in states like CA/NY) and an electoral college result that could go either way based on slim margins in swing states. I don’t see evidence for many people changing sides in this election.
Erick tends to bring up Trump’s narrow wins in MI, WI, PA. But Republicans haven’t won these states for decades, including Bush’s razor-thin EC-margin in 2000 (271-266) and his 286-251 EC-margin in 2004 (winning Iowa and NM). Bush was able to win VA in 2000/2004, but since 2006-2010 seem the Democrats seem to own VA (having both Senators and the governor) and winning the EC votes in 2008, 2012 and 2016 (i.e. a pre-Trump pattern of GOP losing this state).
I believe there are a set of Never Trump voters who supported Ted Cruz that sat out the 2016 election and that many of this group will vote for Trump in 2020. I believe this will more than offset any reluctant Trump-voters who may vote for Biden in 2020. But I think any Trump victory depends on how large the set of so-called hidden-Trump voters is. Surveys suggest many voters in this group may be feeding false information to pollsters due to fear of progressive retribution.
If hidden Trump supporters are for real, perhaps they want to see a repeat of the sad faces on election night 2016, when the prediction of Hillary’s landslide was not to be. My view is that the smart money is on a close election in which national polls of a few thousand people cannot possibly predict the thoughts of millions of wavering voters who will likely decide swing state elections by 1-2 percentage points. The past is easier to predict that the future.
I suspect Trumpists are whistling past the graveyard.
Erick, your analysis of these present dynamics may be interesting to seasoned political junkies such as yourself. But your contribution to the essential public discourse would be better directed toward shedding light on the real issues that determine the future direction of our nation.
Such as: where do we draw the lines between public responsibility and private? And what will be the likely consequences of devaluation of our money and financial institutions due to .gov and Fed interventions? or lack thereof.