Will Candidate Quality Doom Republicans (Again) In 2024?
The Senate map for 2024 is a dream for Republicans. Democrats are defending 23 seats while Republicans are defending 11. Democrats have four seats in historically red states with two incumbents refusing to announce their reelection bid yet. If Republicans pick the right candidates and play their cards right, we could pick up eight seats pushing the bounds of a supermajority. There’s just one problem: candidate quality doomed Republicans in 2022 and is setting up to do the exact same thing again. Watch:
Ok candidates matter. You won’t have a Dr Oz or Walker.
Voting laws also play a factor. Florida was a red wave because mail in ballots were all but banned. Most laws haven’t changed in any state including Georgia. Till they do. It will be more the same with dems making surprising gains and mitigating losses. All in blue states of course.
I am not so sure that candidate quality is the real story now. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, John Fetterman For example. There are others. It seems to me that the difference is that Democrats vote for party win, and the Republicans are split between the establishment moral elites that seems to think we should and can find little Ronny Reagan clones everywhere and THAT would fix GOP losing ways... and those that see the changes in the political process and climate and know that the GOP can no longer win that way.
The establishment GOP also has the problem with their inability to attract enough of the working class. That is the Trump side of the GOP... and then candidates deemed by the establishment GOP as undesirable. But without that the GOP is nothing... no constituent groups except themself.
The narrative from the GOP establishment is that they can only win if they carve off center left moderates by putting forth moderate candidates. They truth is that there are no real center-left voters any more... Democrats, even those that claim as Independent, vote straight party line. There are only GOP voters that cannot control their emotions and vote for Democrats out of anger that the Republicans running are not of their high and mighty morality tribe. With that the GOP will never really win again.