Will Texas Commit Suicide?

Tomorrow, early voting starts in Texas for the Texas Senate primaries and other races. In that state, the Republicans in Texas risk everything for all of us and right now, they seem willing to commit suicide.

Ken Paxton, the sitting Attorney General, has decided to challenge Senator John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Primary. For those unfamiliar with Paxton, had Trump lost in 2024, Paxton would most likely be in Federal prison.

In addition to being a serial adulterer on his wife, Paxton has been impeached unsuccessfully by the Texas legislature and deeply investigated by the federal government, among other things. Ironically, Paxton’s wife saved him from being convicted by the Texas Senate, wherein she held elected office. Though she could not vote in the matter, she stood by her man. After the impeachment trial, we all found out about Paxton’s extramarital activities and his marriage blew up.

The Justice Department only decided to abandon its prosecution of Paxton after Kamala Harris lost and it was clear the Trump Administration would not prosecute one of Trump’s allies.

Eight of Paxton’s closest aides reported Paxton to the FBI for bribery and abuse of office.

In Texas, John Cornyn is not MAGA enough. So the Texas branch of MAGA has convinced its overtly Christian sense of self that a serial adulterer whose own staff reported him to the FBI is the guy to challenge Cornyn. They are ruthless in their insistence Paxton can win because, in part, Paxton won re-election in 2022. Paxton underperformed in 2022 in a year with Joe Biden leading the Democrats. Now, in 2026, Trump is in the White House and Democrats have been gaining in the generic ballot. That was also before Texans became intimately familiar with Paxton’s deviancies.

Texas Republicans just lost a +17 Trump state legislative district in Fort Worth. The warning signs are there.

In truth, Paxton might win, particularly if the Democrats nominate Jasmine Crockett. But the amount of resources Republicans will have to spend on getting Paxton across the finish line will divert critical money from Georgia to beat Ossoff, Maine to help Susan Collins, Michigan to help Mike Rogers, and North Carolina to stop Roy Cooper, among others.

Past performance is the best indicator of future performance and Paxton having underperformed in a good year for the GOP suggests bad things this year, if Texas Republicans decide to commit suicide. A lot of money will have to be spent on Paxton that will cost the GOP other opportunities.

Some of these Texas supporters of Paxton have reasoned they’d rather the Democrats take the Senate than keep John Cornyn. They will not be reasoned with. They wrap themselves in the language of Christianity and promote a serial adulterer of ill repute and then convince themselves the country is going to hell in a hand basket.

They’ll certainly do their best to get us all in that hand basket if they get Paxton across the finish line. Texas Republicans could, of course, do the right thing and send John Cornyn back to the Senate, thereby freeing up resources nationally for the GOP to protect their Senate majority.