I keep saying Biden has the advantage in the race, but Trump can still win. The New York Times has a great graphic on the polling that puts this in more perspective. As I’ve told you, both Democrat and Republican pollsters I’ve been talking to have taken to adding two points automatically to the President’s numbers. Now the New York Times has looked to see what would happen if the polling now were as screwed up as 2016. Behold:
I think Biden is going to win this. Youth turn out is very very high that’s not a good sign for this President. I wouldn’t be surprised if Biden takes Texas. I don’t think people understand how unlikeable for many this President is. Biden is not Hillary he is like able. I voted for Trump due to abortion but I won’t cry if Biden wins this just means a way better candidate four years from now
I'm still not a believer of polls...have not been for several years. Partly due to my marketing background where polls were sometimes requested by a client for them to use in their marketing campaigns. It always worked backwards to get the results the corporation wanted so the questions were skewed as were the target audience. Political polls may vary a bit, but probably not too much. Also, I keep hearing the number of Democrats over Republicans polled. Lastly, the medium these polls are gathered...who answers their phones anymore, or if done online, are the questions being answered honestly? Guess we'll find out if pollsters have a career left after November 3rd. Personally, if it were my career, I'd start working on my Plan B.
The two questions are: 1. Does anybody have any certainty as to who will win? 2. Would polls sponsored by media sources who don't have a strong allegiance to the truth, be honest in telling the public the truth even if they did know? My bet is the answer to both questions is no.
Are the AJC polls of Georgia (monmouth) believable? They (and Quinnipiac) seem to paint Georgia as trending Biden in the 3-5% range.
I think Biden is going to win this. Youth turn out is very very high that’s not a good sign for this President. I wouldn’t be surprised if Biden takes Texas. I don’t think people understand how unlikeable for many this President is. Biden is not Hillary he is like able. I voted for Trump due to abortion but I won’t cry if Biden wins this just means a way better candidate four years from now
I'm still not a believer of polls...have not been for several years. Partly due to my marketing background where polls were sometimes requested by a client for them to use in their marketing campaigns. It always worked backwards to get the results the corporation wanted so the questions were skewed as were the target audience. Political polls may vary a bit, but probably not too much. Also, I keep hearing the number of Democrats over Republicans polled. Lastly, the medium these polls are gathered...who answers their phones anymore, or if done online, are the questions being answered honestly? Guess we'll find out if pollsters have a career left after November 3rd. Personally, if it were my career, I'd start working on my Plan B.
The two questions are: 1. Does anybody have any certainty as to who will win? 2. Would polls sponsored by media sources who don't have a strong allegiance to the truth, be honest in telling the public the truth even if they did know? My bet is the answer to both questions is no.
Great perspective & insight!