DeSantis Finding His Own Voice on Ukraine
Ron DeSantis is trying to find his own way in Ukraine. There is a wing of the GOP that wants no help for Ukraine at all. A wing of the GOP wants the United States to go all in on Ukraine, even if it means escalation.
In a written statement to Tucker Carlson, DeSantis advances a more nuanced view. (1) He wants to help Ukraine; (2) he does not want to give Ukraine offensive capabilities that would allow it to strike outside its territory; (3) he does not want to advance regime change in Russia; and (4) he does not want to take steps that would commit U.S troops to Ukraine.
This is DeSantis's first specifically stated position on Ukraine beyond his earlier statements about not giving them a blank check.
Now, bear with me here — that seems to be the majority position in the GOP. The loudest voices would like offensive weaponry sent to Ukraine, including F-16s and long range missiles that might be used extra-territorially. But most would see that as more of a provocation than necessary and the goal is to support Ukraine defensively and offensively to recapture their own territory.
Naturally, MSNBC had declared DeSantis advancing Russia’s interests. The progressive American political press claims this is like being for stopping Hitler without doing anything.
The Trump wing is declaring DeSantis a globalist. But it meaningfully helps DeSantis to have Tucker Carlson vouching for him with the base. Trump is not going to attack Carlson (yet). Carlson declaring “DeSantis is not a neocon” helps DeSantis. Notice how Carlson says “regime change in Moscow” is something Washington wants. It is a minority view there, but this makes DeSantis sound like he is not a creature of Washington — something Trump is claiming.
The revelation here does not really say much about DeSantis. Of course, he was not going to support going all in on Ukraine or completely withdrawing. That’s been very clear. The reaction to DeSantis is deeply revealing. The press corps will make him the worst thing since Trump and probably worse because he is smarter. The Trump wing of the GOP won’t believe him and will probably be in open warfare with Tucker Carlson before the summer.
Everyone else will wonder how DeSantis’s position is really that different from everyone else and, should those other candidates declare they do want major offensive weaponry going to Ukraine, they’ll be placed in a more defensive position making DeSantis look reasonable. They don’t want to sound like they want to expand the war. They’ll have to make a case that F-16s are not expanding the war.
After all, with the exception of saying this is not a national security issue for the United States, DeSantis’s position is … wait for it … no, no seriously… wait for it … Joe Biden’s position. Biden himself has hesitated to send long range missiles and F-16s to Ukraine.
As articulated, the bottom line is that this position sounds more reasonable than the commentary about it. Also, it sounds like DeSantis has mapped out his path to the White House, has his playbook ready, and has thus far not deviated from the plan. The test of a campaign is really to plan a campaign strategy and stick to it. This seems to be part of that.
Does it make sense to let Ukraine fight Russian aggression rather than us? Absolutely. Yet there are so many domestic issues straining our ever-diminishing resources - men and women, materiel, funding - that it's hard for me to get excited about Ukraine. We built only 186 F-22s and less than 100 are operational today. Every incursion by Russian aircraft into Alaskan airspace is met by F-22s, and we throw Raptors into global hotspots to flex our muscle. Yet each intercept adds hours to already weary airframes, and the F-35 is NOT a suitable replacement (the F-15EX partnered with the F-35 is supposed to fill that gap). Other Air Force, Navy, and Marine aircraft are suffering a similar fate of low operational strength, parts shortages, and diminishing numbers. I'm sure our ships are suffering a similar fate. Last week I read that our smart weapons stockpile would not survive more than a week in a hot war with China. Our national debt is WAY out of control and the economy sucks, yet while Americans suffer, Biden the Brilliant welcomes vagabonds to come suckle at the teat of America's "prosperity." These examples barely scratch the surface of our domestic issues, so is DeSantis' position attractive to me? Not just yes, but hell yes.
There are nuanced arguments worth making and certainly defensible. But “Ukraine is not in our national interest” arguments are objectively wrong. After beating Russia that is likely true but while war is ongoing we need to win the war. “We” as in the west. Anything short of that will result in Putin winning. That includes limiting Ukraine to defensive or short range weapons. Ukraine is not trying to take anyone over. Russia is.