There’s really good news about the coronavirus in the United States. You aren’t hearing it because it is good news. You must go back to June to find comparable numbers in the 7-day moving average. Even as schools reopen, we are trending downward. We should be happy. In three weeks, if Labor Day has caused a spike in the virus, we’ll be flooded with coverage.
1. Trump inviting his supporters to attend a JUNE 20 rally where they (you) would sit indoors, side by side and without any masks, when by FEBRUARY 7 he knew that "It goes through the air . . . . You just breathe the air and that's how it's passed. . . . It's also more deadly than your - you know even your strenuous flus. . . . So this is deadly stuff." (Herman Cain died after attending the rally.)
2. Trump saying on AUGUST 5 (as he sought to reopen schools), "If you look at children, children are almost - and I would almost say definitely - but almost immune from this disease" when on MARCH 19, he told Woodward, "Today and yesterday some startling facts came out. It's not just old, older people it's plenty of young people."
Those poor folks at Jonestown had no reason to know that their leader was willing to sacrifice their lives, and the lives of their children, if it advanced his interests. After Woodward's book, Trump's supporters have no such excuse.
The media is complicit in every COVID19 death. Should the President have been more transparent as he learned more about the virus? Yes. Should he have worn a mask as an example of prudence? Sure. But you are 100% correct that had he done anything in Jan/Feb, the media would have called it a response to impeachment trials (just as it did with banning flights.) He absolutely should have quit saying "China virus" as soon as it had an official name (forget policies of the past--we live in a different world.) Hindsight is 20/20 (pun intended)-- and revisionist history these days starts in media res.
One, it is true that the 7-day moving average of deaths is going down, from 1,174 on Aug 4 to 753 as of yesterday. However, the forecasts are for an increase later in the fall. On April 30, the IMHE estimated 72,433 deaths by Aug 4, but the actual number was 160,620. We effed up, and now they're estimating 410,000 by year end. So, one cheer for the recent decline, but it's far from over.
Two, I have low regard for this "blame the messenger" garbage on Woodward. Trump said what he said on tape. Assuming Trump was truthful about not wanting us to "panic", which is debatable, he deliberately lied to the American people, holding us in such low regard that we would fly off the handle if he were to level with us. The Colonel Jessup mentality--we can't handle the truth--is insulting and nonsensical. This doesn't take into account all the leaders of other nations who didn't lie to their people, where those people didn't "panic", and successfully contained the virus. Trump must think we're really stupid. Maybe he's right, we elected him.
Three, the problem isn't that "people who would not have believed him if he did say the virus was a threat", it's that Trump never took the virus seriously. This is another case of stupid blame-shifting from him to the American people and American governors. Had Trump taken the virus seriously, he would have taken different actions and made different decisions, and the result would've been fewer dead Americans, by the tens of thousands.
Sure, Cuomo and DeBlasio get their share of blame for their missteps, but they run a state and city, respectively. Trump runs the country.
Four, you lost me at "Brian Kemp who competently reopened his state". Cases and deaths surged in June, after Kemp prematurely reopened, and now they're 5th in cases per million and 15th in deaths per million. That's not a success story, and it can't be just passed off on the protests.
Five, yes, Trump was a complete dumba$$ for sitting down even once with Woodward, and even more of a moron for doing it 18 times.
Six, the bottom line is that we as a nation have still not contained the virus and Trump is the president. The EU contained it, most Asian countries contained it, Australia contained it, New Zealand contained, Canada contained it. We haven't, we are failing, and Trump is presiding over this failure.
Excellent summarization, Erick. But you left out the flip-flopping on the part of "St. Fauci" (LOL) and his team over those months as they gained more data on the virus. It was very confusing, if not understandable.
TL;DR The president still isn’t taking the virus seriously. Night before last he was in North Carolina preening about being so clever that his supporters didn’t have to follow mask requirements while attending his rally. Night before last.
Just want to say, Erick, how much I appreciate both your thoughtful analysis, and dmk's as well (below). So much to take in and process. I need a day in seclusion to contemplate it all--plus the devastation these lockdowns and remote learning have produced in our young children. Blessings,....
Erick, I am in general agreement with your view about the danger of Covid. However, I think your analysis distorts the Covid responses Trump took (which had a very significant impact on limiting the tragedy of Covid infections). These actions were combined with Trump projecting an attitude of confidence that if our country put its emphasis on solving real problems instead of focusing on fear mongering, an out-of-control Covid-pandemic can and will go away. There is a lot of evidence is that our country can return to a relatively normal economic life if people practice basic common sense measures like maintaining social distancing, wearing masks when that is unavoidable (especially in crowded indoor conditions), and getting tested if they have symptoms or have come in contact with a known Covid patient.
In some respects, the Covid virus is no more dangerous than the flu as it has similar or lower death-rates-per-case for many patient ages, but a significantly higher death rate for elderly patients. What made the Covid-2020 pandemic more dangerous than recent annual flu outbreaks was that nobody started with Covid immunity and there was no Covid vaccine available. That was also the case for the 1918 flu pandemic, which had a far higher case and death count than the 2020 Covid-pandemic ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html#:~:text=It%20is%20estimated%20that%20about,occurring%20in%20the%20United%20States. ): "It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world's population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States." In comparison, the current worldwide Covid case count is less than 1 million (500x less), the worldwide deaths are less than 1 million (50x less) and the US deaths are about 200K (about 3x less). If Operation Warp Speed delivers a vaccine from multiple vendors before the end of the year (and there are already phase 3 trials in progress), then Covid-2020 will be nowhere near the case/death count of the 1918 flu. But 200K Covid deaths is still a huge number, about 3x-4x a bad US flu year, even though the US has some amount of persistent flu immunity and flu vaccines.
Given that Trump took the following steps to control the Covid virus, it is hard to argue that he was not taking it seriously and downplaying its risks (in a negative sense):
1) The Corona Virus Task Force was initiated on January 29.
2) The China travel ban was announced on January 30.
3) The EU travel ban was announced on March 12.
4) 15 days to slow the spread was announced on March 16.
5) 30 more days to slow the spread was announced on March 30
Trump was downplaying the Covid risk (in a positive sense) because his critics were in major panic mode about ventilator and hospital shortages that were more illusion than reality. On April 2, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to rapidly produce ventilators and no American needed a ventilator that didn't get one. While many states were requesting obscene amounts of ventilators, the task force supplied ventilators based on where they were most needed when they were needed. Within a few weeks, many states were sending their ventilators back having received more than they needed. A similar scenario applied to the panic over hospital bed shortages, for which Trump sent hospital ships to NYC and CA and quickly built temporary hospital facilities in various Covid hot spots. These facilities ended up being largely unused because the hospitals were stressed in a number of Covid hot spots, but they didn't have major overruns. A similar daily panic was pushed about the lack of tests and within about a month the US was testing at a very high rate and it still is. Trump wasn't downplaying Covid risk, but he was simply doing the right thing to optimize the US response to Covid instead of acting in panic mode which often leads to less than optimal responses. If Trump is judged on his Covid actions (as in James 1:22-25 - a doer of the word), his actions are more golden than dross.
Wanting to avert a panic does not explain:
1. Trump inviting his supporters to attend a JUNE 20 rally where they (you) would sit indoors, side by side and without any masks, when by FEBRUARY 7 he knew that "It goes through the air . . . . You just breathe the air and that's how it's passed. . . . It's also more deadly than your - you know even your strenuous flus. . . . So this is deadly stuff." (Herman Cain died after attending the rally.)
2. Trump saying on AUGUST 5 (as he sought to reopen schools), "If you look at children, children are almost - and I would almost say definitely - but almost immune from this disease" when on MARCH 19, he told Woodward, "Today and yesterday some startling facts came out. It's not just old, older people it's plenty of young people."
Those poor folks at Jonestown had no reason to know that their leader was willing to sacrifice their lives, and the lives of their children, if it advanced his interests. After Woodward's book, Trump's supporters have no such excuse.
Thanks Erick. Terrific stuff.
The media is complicit in every COVID19 death. Should the President have been more transparent as he learned more about the virus? Yes. Should he have worn a mask as an example of prudence? Sure. But you are 100% correct that had he done anything in Jan/Feb, the media would have called it a response to impeachment trials (just as it did with banning flights.) He absolutely should have quit saying "China virus" as soon as it had an official name (forget policies of the past--we live in a different world.) Hindsight is 20/20 (pun intended)-- and revisionist history these days starts in media res.
One, it is true that the 7-day moving average of deaths is going down, from 1,174 on Aug 4 to 753 as of yesterday. However, the forecasts are for an increase later in the fall. On April 30, the IMHE estimated 72,433 deaths by Aug 4, but the actual number was 160,620. We effed up, and now they're estimating 410,000 by year end. So, one cheer for the recent decline, but it's far from over.
Two, I have low regard for this "blame the messenger" garbage on Woodward. Trump said what he said on tape. Assuming Trump was truthful about not wanting us to "panic", which is debatable, he deliberately lied to the American people, holding us in such low regard that we would fly off the handle if he were to level with us. The Colonel Jessup mentality--we can't handle the truth--is insulting and nonsensical. This doesn't take into account all the leaders of other nations who didn't lie to their people, where those people didn't "panic", and successfully contained the virus. Trump must think we're really stupid. Maybe he's right, we elected him.
Three, the problem isn't that "people who would not have believed him if he did say the virus was a threat", it's that Trump never took the virus seriously. This is another case of stupid blame-shifting from him to the American people and American governors. Had Trump taken the virus seriously, he would have taken different actions and made different decisions, and the result would've been fewer dead Americans, by the tens of thousands.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/08/trump-coronavirus-deaths-timeline.html
Sure, Cuomo and DeBlasio get their share of blame for their missteps, but they run a state and city, respectively. Trump runs the country.
Four, you lost me at "Brian Kemp who competently reopened his state". Cases and deaths surged in June, after Kemp prematurely reopened, and now they're 5th in cases per million and 15th in deaths per million. That's not a success story, and it can't be just passed off on the protests.
Five, yes, Trump was a complete dumba$$ for sitting down even once with Woodward, and even more of a moron for doing it 18 times.
Six, the bottom line is that we as a nation have still not contained the virus and Trump is the president. The EU contained it, most Asian countries contained it, Australia contained it, New Zealand contained, Canada contained it. We haven't, we are failing, and Trump is presiding over this failure.
Excellent summarization, Erick. But you left out the flip-flopping on the part of "St. Fauci" (LOL) and his team over those months as they gained more data on the virus. It was very confusing, if not understandable.
TL;DR The president still isn’t taking the virus seriously. Night before last he was in North Carolina preening about being so clever that his supporters didn’t have to follow mask requirements while attending his rally. Night before last.
Just want to say, Erick, how much I appreciate both your thoughtful analysis, and dmk's as well (below). So much to take in and process. I need a day in seclusion to contemplate it all--plus the devastation these lockdowns and remote learning have produced in our young children. Blessings,....
Erick, I am in general agreement with your view about the danger of Covid. However, I think your analysis distorts the Covid responses Trump took (which had a very significant impact on limiting the tragedy of Covid infections). These actions were combined with Trump projecting an attitude of confidence that if our country put its emphasis on solving real problems instead of focusing on fear mongering, an out-of-control Covid-pandemic can and will go away. There is a lot of evidence is that our country can return to a relatively normal economic life if people practice basic common sense measures like maintaining social distancing, wearing masks when that is unavoidable (especially in crowded indoor conditions), and getting tested if they have symptoms or have come in contact with a known Covid patient.
In some respects, the Covid virus is no more dangerous than the flu as it has similar or lower death-rates-per-case for many patient ages, but a significantly higher death rate for elderly patients. What made the Covid-2020 pandemic more dangerous than recent annual flu outbreaks was that nobody started with Covid immunity and there was no Covid vaccine available. That was also the case for the 1918 flu pandemic, which had a far higher case and death count than the 2020 Covid-pandemic ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html#:~:text=It%20is%20estimated%20that%20about,occurring%20in%20the%20United%20States. ): "It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world's population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States." In comparison, the current worldwide Covid case count is less than 1 million (500x less), the worldwide deaths are less than 1 million (50x less) and the US deaths are about 200K (about 3x less). If Operation Warp Speed delivers a vaccine from multiple vendors before the end of the year (and there are already phase 3 trials in progress), then Covid-2020 will be nowhere near the case/death count of the 1918 flu. But 200K Covid deaths is still a huge number, about 3x-4x a bad US flu year, even though the US has some amount of persistent flu immunity and flu vaccines.
Given that Trump took the following steps to control the Covid virus, it is hard to argue that he was not taking it seriously and downplaying its risks (in a negative sense):
1) The Corona Virus Task Force was initiated on January 29.
2) The China travel ban was announced on January 30.
3) The EU travel ban was announced on March 12.
4) 15 days to slow the spread was announced on March 16.
5) 30 more days to slow the spread was announced on March 30
Trump was downplaying the Covid risk (in a positive sense) because his critics were in major panic mode about ventilator and hospital shortages that were more illusion than reality. On April 2, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to rapidly produce ventilators and no American needed a ventilator that didn't get one. While many states were requesting obscene amounts of ventilators, the task force supplied ventilators based on where they were most needed when they were needed. Within a few weeks, many states were sending their ventilators back having received more than they needed. A similar scenario applied to the panic over hospital bed shortages, for which Trump sent hospital ships to NYC and CA and quickly built temporary hospital facilities in various Covid hot spots. These facilities ended up being largely unused because the hospitals were stressed in a number of Covid hot spots, but they didn't have major overruns. A similar daily panic was pushed about the lack of tests and within about a month the US was testing at a very high rate and it still is. Trump wasn't downplaying Covid risk, but he was simply doing the right thing to optimize the US response to Covid instead of acting in panic mode which often leads to less than optimal responses. If Trump is judged on his Covid actions (as in James 1:22-25 - a doer of the word), his actions are more golden than dross.