One interesting observation I have about polls is they often consistently overestimate Democrats vote totals in early polls with Republicans doing far better in the actual elections. Here are some examples from the Wikipedia page for historical election results for Gallup Polls:
July 1976 Poll: Carter 62%, Ford 29%; Election: Carter 50.1%…
One interesting observation I have about polls is they often consistently overestimate Democrats vote totals in early polls with Republicans doing far better in the actual elections. Here are some examples from the Wikipedia page for historical election results for Gallup Polls:
July 1976 Poll: Carter 62%, Ford 29%; Election: Carter 50.1% Ford 48.0%
July 1988 Poll: Bush 37-41% Mondale 46-54%; Election: Bush 53.4% Mondale 45.6%
July 1992: Polls: Clinton 56-57% Bush 32-36%; Election Clinton 43% Bush 37.4% Perot 18.9%
One could argue that many voters change their mind closer to election day, but it seems odd that these late-changes typically swing in the Republican direction, sometimes by huge margins. One could argue that this is just coincidence. Or one can argue that early polls often do not accurately reflect actual election results, for some unknown reasons.
One interesting observation I have about polls is they often consistently overestimate Democrats vote totals in early polls with Republicans doing far better in the actual elections. Here are some examples from the Wikipedia page for historical election results for Gallup Polls:
July 1976 Poll: Carter 62%, Ford 29%; Election: Carter 50.1% Ford 48.0%
July 1988 Poll: Bush 37-41% Mondale 46-54%; Election: Bush 53.4% Mondale 45.6%
July 1992: Polls: Clinton 56-57% Bush 32-36%; Election Clinton 43% Bush 37.4% Perot 18.9%
One could argue that many voters change their mind closer to election day, but it seems odd that these late-changes typically swing in the Republican direction, sometimes by huge margins. One could argue that this is just coincidence. Or one can argue that early polls often do not accurately reflect actual election results, for some unknown reasons.