The Presidency is on the ballot in November. But that is not the only thing. There will be 35 Senate seats, 435 House seats, 86 of 99 state legislative chambers, 11 gubernatorial seats, and various judicial and other state and local races. The winners of those 86 legislative chambers will draft the legislative lines for the states and the House of Representatives.
One interesting observation I have about polls is they often consistently overestimate Democrats vote totals in early polls with Republicans doing far better in the actual elections. Here are some examples from the Wikipedia page for historical election results for Gallup Polls:
July 1976 Poll: Carter 62%, Ford 29%; Election: Carter 50.1% Ford 48.0%
July 1988 Poll: Bush 37-41% Mondale 46-54%; Election: Bush 53.4% Mondale 45.6%
July 1992: Polls: Clinton 56-57% Bush 32-36%; Election Clinton 43% Bush 37.4% Perot 18.9%
One could argue that many voters change their mind closer to election day, but it seems odd that these late-changes typically swing in the Republican direction, sometimes by huge margins. One could argue that this is just coincidence. Or one can argue that early polls often do not accurately reflect actual election results, for some unknown reasons.
Polls are not elections, as 2016 approved. But that is far from the only example, as one must also consider this Gallop headline from February 2004: "Kerry, Edwards Lead Bush by Double Digits Among Likely Voters." Maybe the polls are right this time. Maybe not. But despite the Blue Wave of 2018, Cruz is still Senator, Kemp is Governor and Beto and Abrams are hoping the polls about Biden winning in 2020 are correct.
If you pay close attention to the polls, the totals often don't add up to 100%, meaning a lot of people are either undecided or reluctant to reveal to phone callers who they will vote for (and presumably those are likely Trump voters as the set of people who literally hate Trump hasn't really changed since 2016). Also, many of the polls are oversampling Democrats, and one doesn't need a poll to verify that over 90% of Democrats/Republicans in today's elections are going for vote party line.
Trump's tweets usually have a purpose, which Rush discussed yesterday relative to his "delaying the election tweet." Basically Trump was saying that if in-person voting is off the table, the two choices are: 1. Mail in voting subject to fraud. 2. Delaying the election. Everybody knows the Democrats will not delay the election, even if that was possible. So perhaps Trump has alternative motives (like highlight the fraud associated with mail-in voting or making the argument that if Trump wins in 2020, the Democrats insisted on an election ripe for fraud).
Erick, you've said on multiple prior occasions that Trump needs "messaging discipline". It hasn't happened and it won't happen. Trump has never exhibited that trait on Twitter or to media and he's not going to change. He doesn't have the temperament or the mental acuity. He's too unfit.
Two, Trump is not going to adequately address CV19 because he has never adequately addressed it. He has never taken this virus seriously. He might've mouthed some platitudes but then he went right back to his stupid, dangerous and false narratives. He keeps saying it'll go away, which is a hope, not a plan. Trump has no strategy, even turning his back on a 70-page CDC reopening plan.
With all the misinformation and disinformation Trump has spewed out since last January, he's literally killing the people who would vote for him, Herman Cain being one of them, which is why his unfortunate death was tragic and unnecessary. Trump is going to go down hard and it'll be of his own doing.
It won't be long after the electoral dust has settled when historians will conclude that Trump was one of the three worst presidents in our history, and it was this dysfunctional GOP that twice nominated him. Even worse, those Republicans who nominated this zero-character f*ck-up are still going to be around, deflecting blame and pretending that Trump wasn't so bad.
Three, I wish we can retain the Senate so that Biden will face divided government, but Trump's cratering performance in the wake of the pandemic will likely mean a clean sweep in November. What's more, yesterday Obama couldn't have signaled more clearly that Majority Leader Schumer will adios the filibuster completely, so the GOP is going to lose even more power in 2021.
Barring some cataclysmic blunder by Biden or other major event, I see nothing good happening for this party. I don't believe we'll have to wait 'til election day before the reckoning starts, and there should be a reckoning. I hate to sound like a Negative Nancy here, but that's what I'm seeing.
With all the liberals attacking the President verbally and spiritually he needs our prayers. I believe this is a spiritual war in our country right now. I agree the GOP has the most to loss. I propose that we call for prayer. You have a strong voice here Eric. Push for prayer right now please.
One interesting observation I have about polls is they often consistently overestimate Democrats vote totals in early polls with Republicans doing far better in the actual elections. Here are some examples from the Wikipedia page for historical election results for Gallup Polls:
July 1976 Poll: Carter 62%, Ford 29%; Election: Carter 50.1% Ford 48.0%
July 1988 Poll: Bush 37-41% Mondale 46-54%; Election: Bush 53.4% Mondale 45.6%
July 1992: Polls: Clinton 56-57% Bush 32-36%; Election Clinton 43% Bush 37.4% Perot 18.9%
One could argue that many voters change their mind closer to election day, but it seems odd that these late-changes typically swing in the Republican direction, sometimes by huge margins. One could argue that this is just coincidence. Or one can argue that early polls often do not accurately reflect actual election results, for some unknown reasons.
Polls are not elections, as 2016 approved. But that is far from the only example, as one must also consider this Gallop headline from February 2004: "Kerry, Edwards Lead Bush by Double Digits Among Likely Voters." Maybe the polls are right this time. Maybe not. But despite the Blue Wave of 2018, Cruz is still Senator, Kemp is Governor and Beto and Abrams are hoping the polls about Biden winning in 2020 are correct.
If you pay close attention to the polls, the totals often don't add up to 100%, meaning a lot of people are either undecided or reluctant to reveal to phone callers who they will vote for (and presumably those are likely Trump voters as the set of people who literally hate Trump hasn't really changed since 2016). Also, many of the polls are oversampling Democrats, and one doesn't need a poll to verify that over 90% of Democrats/Republicans in today's elections are going for vote party line.
Trump's tweets usually have a purpose, which Rush discussed yesterday relative to his "delaying the election tweet." Basically Trump was saying that if in-person voting is off the table, the two choices are: 1. Mail in voting subject to fraud. 2. Delaying the election. Everybody knows the Democrats will not delay the election, even if that was possible. So perhaps Trump has alternative motives (like highlight the fraud associated with mail-in voting or making the argument that if Trump wins in 2020, the Democrats insisted on an election ripe for fraud).
Great analysis, Erick.
President Trump can be a real dumbass sometimes.
He's behaving like a 5th-grade boy who didn't take his daily dose of ADHD meds and is handed an iPhone to keep himself occupied. For the love of Pete.
Erick, you've said on multiple prior occasions that Trump needs "messaging discipline". It hasn't happened and it won't happen. Trump has never exhibited that trait on Twitter or to media and he's not going to change. He doesn't have the temperament or the mental acuity. He's too unfit.
Two, Trump is not going to adequately address CV19 because he has never adequately addressed it. He has never taken this virus seriously. He might've mouthed some platitudes but then he went right back to his stupid, dangerous and false narratives. He keeps saying it'll go away, which is a hope, not a plan. Trump has no strategy, even turning his back on a 70-page CDC reopening plan.
With all the misinformation and disinformation Trump has spewed out since last January, he's literally killing the people who would vote for him, Herman Cain being one of them, which is why his unfortunate death was tragic and unnecessary. Trump is going to go down hard and it'll be of his own doing.
It won't be long after the electoral dust has settled when historians will conclude that Trump was one of the three worst presidents in our history, and it was this dysfunctional GOP that twice nominated him. Even worse, those Republicans who nominated this zero-character f*ck-up are still going to be around, deflecting blame and pretending that Trump wasn't so bad.
Three, I wish we can retain the Senate so that Biden will face divided government, but Trump's cratering performance in the wake of the pandemic will likely mean a clean sweep in November. What's more, yesterday Obama couldn't have signaled more clearly that Majority Leader Schumer will adios the filibuster completely, so the GOP is going to lose even more power in 2021.
Barring some cataclysmic blunder by Biden or other major event, I see nothing good happening for this party. I don't believe we'll have to wait 'til election day before the reckoning starts, and there should be a reckoning. I hate to sound like a Negative Nancy here, but that's what I'm seeing.
Erick, have you seen Mike Rowe's article on Red State?
With all the liberals attacking the President verbally and spiritually he needs our prayers. I believe this is a spiritual war in our country right now. I agree the GOP has the most to loss. I propose that we call for prayer. You have a strong voice here Eric. Push for prayer right now please.