About Last Night: Republican Party 1854-2023, RIP

Only Trump candidates can win, except only Trump candidates lose. Last night was a Rorschach test for how you see the Republican Party, and that, in and of itself, is the problem. It’s either all Trump or not all Trump and the reality and truth is that Trump and the MAGA brand work very well in some parts of the country and work very badly in others. Last night happened to have elections in parts of the country where it works very badly.

In Kentucky, the Republican candidates who wouldn’t accept that 2020 was stolen won. The candidate who was Mitch McConnell’s protege but ran with Donald Trump’s endorsement, including attacking Ron DeSantis for not being sufficiently deferential to Trump, lost.

In Mississippi, the GOP Governor struggled more than he should. He wrapped himself in the MAGA label, but that might have helped him.

In Virginia, Glenn Youngkin and the GOP ran a flawless campaign and wound up not just failing to capture the state senate but losing the state house — something no one saw coming. The Democrats in that state ran on a campaign of their willingness to work with Youngkin, who is hugely popular. They also attacked every Republican as an election denier and “MAGA.” It worked.

But this isn’t just about or really even about Donald Trump.

The reality is that the GOP as a national party is dead. It is now a conglomeration of several regional parties. In parts of the country, Republicans must run wrapped in the MAGA label as Donald Trump candidates. In other parts of the country, they must run as far from Trump as possible. That renders the GOP a regional party of divergent views that must then assemble a coalition of disparate and often incompatible values.

For all the polling that shows Joe Biden doing a terrible job and people not liking Biden, the GOP might just be too divided to win nationally at this point. In fact, Joe Biden is hugely unpopular, and that should spell doom for his party. But that is not happening in the actual elections.

Some of you will conclude that means the elections are all being stolen. If so, you might as well check out of politics now and let the rest of us try to win.

In Kentucky and Mississippi, the real issues were with the candidates themselves. One dare not suggest in Kentucky a portion of the voters rejected the Republican for his race — he won statewide as AG, but one must wonder if some voters in Kentucky bore racial animus. You cannot really dismiss that, given just how suddenly antisemitism has crept in so virulently.

But the Democrat incumbent connected culturally with voters, and the Republican, Daniel Cameron, alienated suburban voters. He ran as a hardcore Trump supporter, and he did not have to. He failed to read the room. The Republican who did the best is the Republican who ran the furthest from Trump, giving a defense of the 2020 election’s integrity.

It is notable, by the way, how quickly Trump supporters have rushed to attach Cameron to McConnell. It is true, Cameron was a McConnell protege. But in 2023, Cameron ran as Trump’s guy, not McConnell’s guy. But he also ran as Trump’s guy at the expense of being his own man. Had he spent more time running as Daniel Cameron and less as Daniel “Did I Tell You I Was Endorsed by Trump?” Cameron, he might have won.

But in Louisiana, Jeff Landry won a few weeks ago by being Trump’s candidate. What worked in Louisiana did not work in Kentucky.

In Mississippi, Tate Reeves just isn’t that popular and ran a bad campaign. His embrace of the MAGA label probably drove turn out for him more than it alienated people.

In Virginia, the Democrats’ tarring and feathering Republicans as Trump candidates killed the GOP — that and Democrat abortion supporters rallied. We cannot dismiss abortion as a driver, too. Between abortion and Trump, Democrats turned out. Republicans found the 15-week compromise sweet spot that polled well with the general electorate, but it triggered Democrat passions.

The hilarious irony is that Donald Trump, on the ballot, can probably motivate more people to turn out than a candidate running wrapped in Trump’s banner. But Trump also alienates suburban voters and drives up Democrat intensity.

At this point, the only way to fix the GOP is to get through 2024. Either Trump will be the nominee or not. If he is not, the GOP has a chance to reset with a new face in charge who can assemble a broader coalition. If Trump is the nominee and wins, it suggests doom for the GOP in the 2026 midterms because we now have multiple midterms where Trump voters do not turn out to vote except for Trump. But, in the meantime, it would be a win for the presidency, which the GOP will take. If Trump loses, the GOP gets to fight over the rubble and find a new standard bearer to rebuild the party in their image.

The problem, however, is that if Trump loses, he and his supporters will again insist it was stolen, and his supporters will also demand the future standard bearer be close enough to Trump that whoever it is further alienates suburban white voters, possibly without being able to replace those voters with non-white working-class voters.

In the meantime, the GOP is mostly a series of regional parties with conflicting views where Trump-style candidates cost races in suburban white areas and non-Trump candidates cost elections in exurban and rural areas. And the new coalition of Trump voters does not have the resources to compete. Democrats outspent the GOP in Kentucky, Virginia, and Ohio. Trump voters only show up for Trump and only give money to Trump.

Lincoln warned that a house divided against itself cannot stand. His party is now divided against itself and is collapsing at a time it should be winning against a party whose incumbent standard bearer has the popularity of an ingrown toenail.

There’s just no good spin for the GOP from last night in these state races. But, at the local level, in school board races and city council races where the politics really is local, and the candidates are known by their own personality, the GOP had some good successes. In Long Island, the GOP has taken a near sweep. There were bright spots in local Virginia elections, too. This shows the GOP a roadmap forward — be your own person, not Trump’s heir or Trump’s opponent. Dare I say the Brian Kemp model remains a path forward — be defined by who you are, not who others say you are.