In all the talk about enthusiasm for Trump and lack of enthusiasm for Biden, no one seems to mention the anti-Trump enthusiasm. That's the big unknown.
In all the talk about enthusiasm for Trump and lack of enthusiasm for Biden, no one seems to mention the anti-Trump enthusiasm. That's the big unknown.
Rick, My view is that there are all kinds of unknowns and people making bold election predictions are premature. I agree there is a good deal of anti-Trump enthusiasm. IMO, not much of it is new since 2016, as Trump did virtually what he said he was going to do and his character traits are not a surprise to anybody. In other words, the people who hated Trump in 2016, hate him now, but I suspect they voted for Hillary in 2016 and are a virtual NOP. But I also think some amount of milder anti-Trump enthusiasm sat out the 2016 election and that this group will vote Biden in 2020.
On the other hand, I think there is a good deal of 2016 anti-Trump enthusiasm in 2016 that is now pro-Trump because he basically did what he promised to do (as one 2016 Never Trump argument was that he would govern as a Democrat, which was clearly not the case). IMO, there is also evidence that a set of never-before voters are aligning with Trump and that some amount of Hispanics/Blacks that are swinging in Trump's direction because of his policies. The question is whether Trump has lost more votes than he has gained. IMO, that is something the polls are not going to be able to predict.
2018 was not a national election year making the polling very different. The Democrats won in the House by dumping big money into suburban districts upset with tax changes reducing SALT deductions, and with ballot harvesting in CA flipping elections long after election day, and with court redistricting that moved urban voters into suburban districts (all unique to 2018). But in 2018, the Republicans won Senate races and increased their majority despite the polls predicting a huge blue wave (remember the Beto-craze in TX and how Democrats were going to take GA house seats in special elections?). In about two weeks, we will know whether 2016 or 2018 is the anomaly in national elections, and if the the huge Biden leads predicted by this years polls are as wrong as the huge Clinton leads were in 2016.
Don't forget all the early retirements brought on us by never trumpers and people believing the Russian collusion hoax. That was not a straight election.
In all the talk about enthusiasm for Trump and lack of enthusiasm for Biden, no one seems to mention the anti-Trump enthusiasm. That's the big unknown.
Rick, My view is that there are all kinds of unknowns and people making bold election predictions are premature. I agree there is a good deal of anti-Trump enthusiasm. IMO, not much of it is new since 2016, as Trump did virtually what he said he was going to do and his character traits are not a surprise to anybody. In other words, the people who hated Trump in 2016, hate him now, but I suspect they voted for Hillary in 2016 and are a virtual NOP. But I also think some amount of milder anti-Trump enthusiasm sat out the 2016 election and that this group will vote Biden in 2020.
On the other hand, I think there is a good deal of 2016 anti-Trump enthusiasm in 2016 that is now pro-Trump because he basically did what he promised to do (as one 2016 Never Trump argument was that he would govern as a Democrat, which was clearly not the case). IMO, there is also evidence that a set of never-before voters are aligning with Trump and that some amount of Hispanics/Blacks that are swinging in Trump's direction because of his policies. The question is whether Trump has lost more votes than he has gained. IMO, that is something the polls are not going to be able to predict.
Have a good day!
Good points. Have a good day as well.
Rick, Somehow my comment was logged to your post and not my reply to Erick. My mistake.
No problem.
2018 was not a national election year making the polling very different. The Democrats won in the House by dumping big money into suburban districts upset with tax changes reducing SALT deductions, and with ballot harvesting in CA flipping elections long after election day, and with court redistricting that moved urban voters into suburban districts (all unique to 2018). But in 2018, the Republicans won Senate races and increased their majority despite the polls predicting a huge blue wave (remember the Beto-craze in TX and how Democrats were going to take GA house seats in special elections?). In about two weeks, we will know whether 2016 or 2018 is the anomaly in national elections, and if the the huge Biden leads predicted by this years polls are as wrong as the huge Clinton leads were in 2016.
Don't forget all the early retirements brought on us by never trumpers and people believing the Russian collusion hoax. That was not a straight election.