In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Joe Biden has bumped back up a few tenths of a point to a 4.2% lead in the battlegrounds. That is more relevant than the national polls. There’s a good piece in Politico today that I think captures some truth in it.
Were these normal times, Trump would lose as badly as did Goldwater or Mondale. I am hoping he does no damage to himself in the debate tonight. We know from McLuhan and others that television can sway attention away from the facts to how a candidate presents himself, and Trump came off as a bully in the first debate. Trump can say that Biden used his son to make money in both Russia / Ukraine and China, but he has to say it in the right way.
In Center City Philadelphia there are only signs for Biden. I told my neighbor across the street that I was not putting up a Trump sign on my lawn for fear that people would steal it. At least she did not give me a lecture about being for Trump. Really I am not as much for Donald Trump as for the policies he has maintained during the past four years as President; I don't know that the Trump family has broken with their habit of building an empire for themselves.
Due to distrust of everything “public”, Trump voters tend to ignore poll surveys. They consider voting to be a private matter. Consequently, poll numbers are as inaccurate as MSM narratives. I believe the President will do very well on 11/3.
I heard a LA County supervisor on the radio yesterday say they have 5million+ eligible voters in the county and have had 1million vote already. If that’s true, and if it’s indicative (two big ifs), that tells me something special is happening.
In all the talk about enthusiasm for Trump and lack of enthusiasm for Biden, no one seems to mention the anti-Trump enthusiasm. That's the big unknown.
As I have stated about you before: you continually challenge what I would often prefer to think. This is your profession, and even when you say things I do not like, I have deep respect for your position and your mind. Yet as you and I both know, God will be on His throne no matter what happens on November 3rd.....
Ok, so Biden is going to win. What does that mean for America? How long will he be an active president before Harris - and the far Left - take over? If the Republicans lose the senate also, will we be on a runaway train toward socialism? Should I start studying the culture of Venezuela?
Victor Davis believes America, as we know it, is toast if Biden wins.
Once again, Rasmussen was the most accurate nationwide poll in 2016 election with a final poll result of Clinton +2 (versus 2.1 for the actual vote count). One can see that Rasmussen was one of the most accurate polls in 2016 over a 6 month interval by looking at the poll spreads on Real Clear Politics from May to October, with its range exactly centered on the final result (i.e. Clinton +2 with +/-4 points of sampling error).
Rasmussen: Clinton +6 to Trump +2
Bloomberg: Clinton +9 to Trump +2
Economist You/Gov: Clinton +6 to Trump +5
ABC Washington Post: Clinton +12 to Trump +1
Fox News: Clinton +6 to Clinton +2
Monmouth: Clinton +13 to Clinton +6
Gravis: Clinton +4 to Tie
NBC News Wall Street Journal: Clinton +11 to Clinton +1
CBS News: Clinton +9 to Clinton +4
Similarly, Trafalgar was the most accurate state poll for MI, WI, PA as the other battleground state polls were not even close. The 2020 election results may not match 2016. But there are good reasons to believe the polls may once again be missing Trump supporters. In about 2 weeks, we should know if that is the case.
Were these normal times, Trump would lose as badly as did Goldwater or Mondale. I am hoping he does no damage to himself in the debate tonight. We know from McLuhan and others that television can sway attention away from the facts to how a candidate presents himself, and Trump came off as a bully in the first debate. Trump can say that Biden used his son to make money in both Russia / Ukraine and China, but he has to say it in the right way.
In Center City Philadelphia there are only signs for Biden. I told my neighbor across the street that I was not putting up a Trump sign on my lawn for fear that people would steal it. At least she did not give me a lecture about being for Trump. Really I am not as much for Donald Trump as for the policies he has maintained during the past four years as President; I don't know that the Trump family has broken with their habit of building an empire for themselves.
Due to distrust of everything “public”, Trump voters tend to ignore poll surveys. They consider voting to be a private matter. Consequently, poll numbers are as inaccurate as MSM narratives. I believe the President will do very well on 11/3.
I heard a LA County supervisor on the radio yesterday say they have 5million+ eligible voters in the county and have had 1million vote already. If that’s true, and if it’s indicative (two big ifs), that tells me something special is happening.
In all the talk about enthusiasm for Trump and lack of enthusiasm for Biden, no one seems to mention the anti-Trump enthusiasm. That's the big unknown.
As I have stated about you before: you continually challenge what I would often prefer to think. This is your profession, and even when you say things I do not like, I have deep respect for your position and your mind. Yet as you and I both know, God will be on His throne no matter what happens on November 3rd.....
Ok, so Biden is going to win. What does that mean for America? How long will he be an active president before Harris - and the far Left - take over? If the Republicans lose the senate also, will we be on a runaway train toward socialism? Should I start studying the culture of Venezuela?
Victor Davis believes America, as we know it, is toast if Biden wins.
Once again, Rasmussen was the most accurate nationwide poll in 2016 election with a final poll result of Clinton +2 (versus 2.1 for the actual vote count). One can see that Rasmussen was one of the most accurate polls in 2016 over a 6 month interval by looking at the poll spreads on Real Clear Politics from May to October, with its range exactly centered on the final result (i.e. Clinton +2 with +/-4 points of sampling error).
Rasmussen: Clinton +6 to Trump +2
Bloomberg: Clinton +9 to Trump +2
Economist You/Gov: Clinton +6 to Trump +5
ABC Washington Post: Clinton +12 to Trump +1
Fox News: Clinton +6 to Clinton +2
Monmouth: Clinton +13 to Clinton +6
Gravis: Clinton +4 to Tie
NBC News Wall Street Journal: Clinton +11 to Clinton +1
CBS News: Clinton +9 to Clinton +4
Similarly, Trafalgar was the most accurate state poll for MI, WI, PA as the other battleground state polls were not even close. The 2020 election results may not match 2016. But there are good reasons to believe the polls may once again be missing Trump supporters. In about 2 weeks, we should know if that is the case.